Thursday, February 27, 2014

The Stephen Drew Question

In the bottom of the 4th inning, Stephen Drew cracked a 391-foot homerun to right-center at Fenway Park - sending the Fenway Faithful into a frenzy. It was Game 6 of the 2013 World Series and the homerun was the biggest of Drew's career. The rocket put the Red Sox up 4-0 on Cardinals rookie phenom Michael Wacha. For at least this brief moment, Red Sox fans forgot just how poorly Drew had been hitting all season (and post-season). Fast-forward to free agency, and already Red Sox fans are more than willing to let Drew move on to another club and let top prospect Xander Bogaerts take over the reigns at shortstop. Drew's crispness in the field, calm demeanor, and praise from his teammates were not enough to win over Boston.

Now with Spring Training underway, Drew is still without a contract mostly because for a team to sign him they would have to forfeit their highest non-protected draft pick in 2014. With the Red Sox offering Drew a 1-year $14.1 million qualifying offer and his subsequent rejection of it, he immediately had "draft pick" added to his price tag. The two teams most linked to Drew this off-season have in fact been the Red Sox and the New York Mets. The Mets undoubtedly have more of a need for Drew, as they continue their long rebuilding process. Acquiring a great glove like Drew's would give the young arms of New York such as Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey (though he will miss this season due to elbow surgery), and future call-up Noah Syndergaard some additional security in the field and confidence. In addition, the pick that the Mets would have to forfeit to sign Drew is the 72nd pick, the latest pick of any team in the league other than the Orioles (88th). Despite their needs at shortstop, negotiations between Drew's agent Scott Boras and the Mets have been slow and have yet to pick up.

It is reasonable to wonder if the New York Yankees will get involved with Drew at some point. Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter only played 17 games last year and the signings of Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts, and the re-signing of Brendan Ryan hardly seem like great options for the Bombers. If Drew is willing to move to second base, as his agent has told the Blue Jays, the Yankees could get involved soon. Drew would potentially cap off a huge off-season in which the Yankees have spent close to a half-billion dollars.

Drew helped Boston acquire it's third World Series championship in a decade. He played stellar defense and while his offense slacked off for most of the season and post-season he was second among American League shortstops post-All Star break in homeruns and third in on base percentage. Despite these respectable numbers, however, the Red Sox should stay the course. Drew was signed as a transitional shortstop for one season. It is time to let Bogaerts play shortstop and Middlebrooks third base. The 21-year old Bogaerts and 25-year old Middlebrooks have quickly become fan favorites in Boston and provide the lineup with more than Drew can offer. While the only real infield depth the Red Sox have outside of their starters is Jonathan Herrera, the Sox have phenom's Garin Cecchini and Mookie Betts waiting in the wings. Most likely neither will see ample time at the major league level this season, if any. However, depending on how their seasons go and the health of the Red Sox infield, they could receive calls to the major league club sooner rather than later. All the more reason to let Drew walk and let the young guys grow.

http://wp.streetwise.co/wp-content/uploads//2013/10/Drew-1.jpg

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Mock Draft 1.0

Before you plunge into your league's draft lobby without a plan or a sense of where certain players are getting drafted, take advantage of ESPN.com's free mock draft lobby. Mock drafts are harmless, fairly accurate of where players are being drafted (of course, this would depend on who you are drafting with) and they are actually pretty fun to do with zero consequences. This was my first draft of the 2014 season. Check it out!

 The following mock draft was done for a 10 team, head-to-head (H2H), standard 5x5 scoring system (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG + Ks, W, ERA, WHIP, Svs), non-keeper league. Most of the picks will have an explanation every 2-5 rounds. The draft was done on February 16, 2014.

Round: 1
(1) Team One - Mike Trout CF
** (2) Team PETE - Miguel Cabrera 3B
(3) Team Three - Adam Jones CF
(4) Team Four - Andrew McCutchen CF
(5) Team Five - Paul Goldschmidt 1B
(6) Team Six - Carlos Gonzalez LF
(7) Team Seven - Clayton Kershaw SP
(8) Team Eight - Prince Fielder 1B
(9) Team Nine - Ryan Braun LF
(10) Team Ten - Chris Davis 1B

Round: 2
(11) Team Ten - Jacoby Ellsbury CF
(12) Team Nine - Adrian Beltre 3B
(13) Team Eight - Robinson Cano 2B
(14) Team Seven - Yu Darvish SP
(15) Team Six - Hanley Ramirez SS
(16) Team Five - Troy Tulowitzki SS
(17) Team Four - Adam Wainwright SP
(18) Team Three - Joey Votto 1B
** (19) Team PETE - Edwin Encarnacion 1B
(20) Team One - Dustin Pedroia 2B
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The second overall choice was an obvious one. This year, if you have the number two pick in just about any scoring system, you are taking whoever the owner with the first pick didn't take between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Prince Fielder leaving Detroit shouldn't scare you away. Detroit's lineup is still plenty deep and Miguel Cabrera will once again reign as an MVP favorite.

The more interesting selection was Encarnacion at 19. This early in drafts, the power players are what most owners are looking for in standard scoring leagues. I was ecstatic to see "EE" available at 19. He's hit 78 homers over the last two seasons. Even with Reyes and Bautista missing a combined 113 games in 2013, he managed to crack 100 RBI. Yes, he's on the wrong side of 30 years old but I'm only drafting him for what he's going to do in 2014.

Most eye-brow raising selection of these two rounds: Adam Jones, Round 1 Pick 3
 Pick 3 is a tough pill to swallow this season. Certainly taking Andrew McCutchen or Paul Goldschmidt will only do good things for your team. However, after Trout and Cabrera it is really anyone's guess as to who is the clear-cut #3 pick. Insert Jones. Arguably the potent-Orioles lineup's best hitter, Jones is entering the prime of his career. He's the complete package and while he won't steal as many bases as McCutchen he should be good for close to 10 homeruns and 20 RBI more. This pick may have been bold, but if you have the third pick in your draft and you are a believer in Jones, you should know that he won't be available by your next pick. Trust your gut!
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Round: 3
(21) Team One - Bryce Harper LF
** (22) Team PETE - Giancarlo Stanton RF
(23) Team Three - Shin-Soo Choo CF
(24) Team Four - Max Scherzer SP
(25) Team Five - Felix Hernandez SP
(26) Team Six - Evan Longoria 3B
(27) Team Seven - David Price SP
(28) Team Eight - Stephen Strasburg SP
(29) Team Nine - David Wright 3B
(30) Team Ten - Carlos Gomez CF

Round: 4
(31) Team Ten - Jason Kipnis 2B
(32) Team Nine - Jay Bruce RF
(33) Team Eight - Ian Desmond SS
(34) Team Seven - Craig Kimbrel RP
(35) Team Six - Freddie Freeman 1B
(36) Team Five - Buster Posey C
(37) Team Four - Cliff Lee SP
(38) Team Three - Ian Kinsler 2B
** (39) Team PETE - Jose Bautista RF
(40) Team One - David Ortiz DH
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Would it really surprise anyone if the four players with the most homeruns in 2014 are Cabrera, Encarnacion, Stanton, and Bautista? Don't get too excited Blue Jays fans, but I don't think anyone would be too shocked. This does not mean you should enter your drafts thinking "HRs, HRs, HRs!!!" Punting categories or completely dismissing pitching until it is too late are strategies that are doomed to fail. I do, however, place a special emphasis on homeruns. A single HR in a standard league helps you in four of the five offensive categories with one swing of the bat. I could get more technical, but it is really that simple.

The Miami lineup is atrocious and I am not going to convince anyone otherwise. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rafael Furcal, Garrett Jones, and the first full season of major league play for Christian Yelich may not scream World Series but compare it to this:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2013.shtml

How terrible is that!? Combine these additions with the fact that Stanton is only 24 and continuously growing, I see only upside. At least more upside than I saw with last season's lineup.

Bautista has only played in 210 games over the last two seasons. Despite the consistent injuries, however, he's cracked 55 homers over the course of those 210 games. Not bad. He's definitely trending downward but he still has the power to produce a 40+ HR, 100+ RBI season. Alex Rios or Justin Upton were probably safer picks at this point but there is nothing wrong with taking on some risk if the upside is appealing enough.
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Round: 5
(41) Team One - Albert Pujols 1B
** (42) Team PETE - Jose Reyes SS
(43) Team Three - Yasiel Puig RF
(44) Team Four - Ben Zobrist 2B
(45) Team Five - Madison Bumgarner SP
(46) Team Six - Justin Upton LF
(47) Team Seven - Justin Verlander SP
(48) Team Eight - Zack Greinke SP
(49) Team Nine - Elvis Andrus SS
(50) Team Ten - Alex Rios RF

Round: 6
(51) Team Ten - Chris Sale SP
(52) Team Nine - Jean Segura SS
(53) Team Eight - Josh Donaldson 3B
(54) Team Seven - Aroldis Chapman RP
(55) Team Six - Jose Fernandez SP
(56) Team Five - Adrian Gonzalez 1B
(57) Team Four - Joe Mauer C
(58) Team Three - Cole Hamels SP
** (59) Team PETE - Matt Carpenter 2B
(60) Team One - Yadier Molina C 
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Drafting a team's middle-infield continues to terrorize owners who wait one round too long. These two middle-infielders make for a solid fantasy infield. I promise, I am not a Blue Jays fan. If I have so much faith in Encarnacion and Bautista, though, why not Reyes? He only played 93 games last season due to a fluke ankle injury. Before the injury, he was hitting .385. Of course, that was only through 38 at-bats but we have seen elite-level play from Reyes plenty of times before. It wasn't long ago that this 30 year old shortstop was a high first-rounder. He says he feels 100% healthy and if so expect big things from from #7.

It is entirely possible I paid up a little bit for Matt Carpenter's insane season where he lead the league in runs, hits, and doubles. While this may be the case, there is no reason to believe that Carpenter isn't legit. He's a hard-hitting lead-off man atop a great lineup. His dual-position eligibility for a .300 hitting/100 run scoring  second-basemen/third-basemen is rare. Some may think I overpaid, I believe this pick was a steal.

Most eye-brow raising selection of these two rounds: Aroldis Chapman, Round 6 Pick 54
Chapman is an excellent player - one of the hardest throwing closers in the game. He should be good for a fantastic K/9 ratio and on the right side of 40 saves. With that said, there are closers going over 10 rounds later that could very easily finish with more saves than Chapman. Does that necessarily make them better? No. At the same time, Chapman is already the second closer off the board and while the K's can sometimes make a difference in a week's match-up, this is simply too early for what you are really drafting this guy for - saves. Let someone else overpay for Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, and Holland.
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 Round: 7
(61) Team One - Matt Kemp CF
** (62) Team PETE - Matt Cain SP
(63) Team Three - Allen Craig 1B
(64) Team Four - Hisashi Iwakuma SP
(65) Team Five - Yoenis Cespedes LF
(66) Team Six - Ryan Zimmerman 3B
(67) Team Seven - Kenley Jansen RP
(68) Team Eight - Greg Holland RP
(69) Team Nine - Brandon Phillips 2B
(70) Team Ten - Eric Hosmer 1B

Round: 8
(71) Team Ten - Anibal Sanchez SP
(72) Team Nine - Matt Holliday LF
(73) Team Eight - Hunter Pence RF
(74) Team Seven - Jered Weaver SP
(75) Team Six - Wil Myers RF
(76) Team Five - Starling Marte LF
(77) Team Four - Carlos Santana C
(78) Team Three - Kris Medlen SP
** (79) Team PETE - Gio Gonzalez SP
(80) Team One - Carlos Beltran RF 
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I typically wouldn't take two starting pitchers during the first 10 rounds of a 10 team league. Cain and Gonzalez, however, were too good to pass up. Cain's 4.00 ERA last season is going to scare a lot of owners away. Here's why you shouldn't be scared: Cain had an abysmal April and July. He had an ERA under 3.50 in every other month of the season including a 1.61 in September to close out the year. The hiccups are scary but a post-All Star break ERA of 2.36 sounds a lot more like the Matt Cain we've all seen the previous 4 seasons.

Meanwhile, over the past 4 seasons of Gio Gonzalez's career, he has thrown over 190 innings each time with the highest his ERA ever going over that period being last year at 3.36. He is as reliable as they come and should be projected for over 30 starts, close to 200 innings and 200 Ks, to go along with a superb ERA in the 3.00 to 3.40 range.
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Round: 9
(81) Team One - Masahiro Tanaka SP
** (82) Team PETE - Josh Hamilton RF
(83) Team Three - Martin Prado 3B
(84) Team Four - Trevor Rosenthal RP
(85) Team Five - Shelby Miller SP
(86) Team Six - Mat Latos SP
(87) Team Seven - Jason Heyward RF
(88) Team Eight - Domonic Brown LF
(89) Team Nine - Mark Trumbo 1B
(90) Team Ten - Kyle Seager 3B

Round: 10
(91) Team Ten - Mike Minor SP
(92) Team Nine - Shane Victorino RF
(93) Team Eight - Jordan Zimmermann SP
(94) Team Seven - Billy Butler DH
(95) Team Six - Gerrit Cole SP
(96) Team Five - Jose Altuve 2B
(97) Team Four - Jed Lowrie SS
(98) Team Three - Jonathan Lucroy C
** (99) Team PETE - Manny Machado 3B
(100) Team One - Starlin Castro SS 
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 Undoubtedly these were two huge reaches. ESPN ranks Hamilton and Machado at 109 and 113 respectively. Pouring it on is the fact that now I have drafted what is probably going to be the most injury-prone mock team in the history of mock teams. Not only do I have the notoriously injured Bautista, Reyes, and Hamilton but my young 3B had off-season knee surgery. This team screams "frustration!" It's worth pointing out, though, that Hamilton played the most games he's played in a season last year since 2008. Sure, his numbers were massively disappointing. His power took a severe dip and his first half was abysmal. I'm willing to write-off Hamilton's 2013 season as a fluke, hoping he was trying too hard to live up to his contract or having trouble adjusting to his new team. In the incredible story of Josh Hamilton's career, 2014 will be a fresh chapter.

As for Machado, the sky is the limit for the young infielder. In a lineup with names like Jones, Davis, and Hardy - Machado will have every chance to shine. He did a pretty fine job of shining last year. Look for him to continue his development in 2014.
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Round: 11
(101) Team One - Aramis Ramirez 3B
** (102) Team PETE - Alex Gordon LF
(103) Team Three - Alex Cobb SP
(104) Team Four - Matt Adams 1B
(105) Team Five - Brett Lawrie 3B
(106) Team Six - Matt Moore SP
(107) Team Seven - Pedro Alvarez 3B
(108) Team Eight - Wilin Rosario C
(109) Team Nine - Brian McCann C
(110) Team Ten - Homer Bailey SP

Round: 12
(111) Team Ten - James Shields SP
(112) Team Nine - Anthony Rizzo 1B
(113) Team Eight - Hyun-Jin Ryu SP
(114) Team Seven - Victor Martinez DH
(115) Team Six - Aaron Hill 2B
(116) Team Five - Joe Nathan RP
(117) Team Four - Koji Uehara RP
(118) Team Three - Sergio Romo RP
** (119) Team PETE - Michael Wacha SP
(120) Team One - Mike Napoli 1B 
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I was happy to grab Gordon at 103. A fourth outfielder who is easily capable of 90R/20HR/80RBI/10SB/.280AVG is a luxury. That batting average may be a bit of a reach but what can I say? I have faith in Gordon. The Royals have finally become a respectable MLB franchise again and their left-fielder has a lot to do with that.

Wacha is going to be one of those pitchers this year that if you want him, you have to reach for him. The 22 year old showed off what he could do on a world-stage in the playoffs but even before his breath-taking, amazing playoff run he posted a stellar 2.78 ERA over his first 64.2 innings of major league ball. St. Louis just knows how to churn out excellent pitchers.

Most eye-brow raising selection of these two rounds: Brett Lawrie, Round 11 Pick 105
Surpise! A Blue Jay that I didn't draft. Lawrie certainly has the potential that many scouts have seen in him. However, in round 11 with Sandoval and Headley still on the board, I believe the Lawrie pick is a little high. He has had over 400 at-bats each of the last two seasons and hasn't given owners any reason to take him this high. This could be the year he breaks out, no doubt. Or this could be yet another season of less than 120 games, a sub-par BA, and not much fantasy numbers to be happy about.
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Round: 13
(121) Team One - J.J. Hardy SS
** (122) Team PETE - Jon Lester SP
(123) Team Three - Andrelton Simmons SS
(124) Team Four - Jeff Samardzija SP
(125) Team Five - Billy Hamilton CF
(126) Team Six - Matt Wieters C
(127) Team Seven - Pablo Sandoval 3B
(128) Team Eight - Chase Utley 2B
(129) Team Nine - Jayson Werth RF
(130) Team Ten - Desmond Jennings CF

Round: 14
(131) Team Ten - Doug Fister SP
(132) Team Nine - Coco Crisp CF
(133) Team Eight - Glen Perkins RP
(134) Team Seven - Salvador Perez C
(135) Team Six - David Robertson RP
(136) Team Five - Jim Johnson RP
(137) Team Four - Carl Crawford LF
(138) Team Three - Leonys Martin CF
** (139) Team PETE - Michael Cuddyer RF
(140) Team One - Will Venable RF 
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Jon Lester's first-half of 2013: 8-6, 4.58 ERA
Jon Lester's second-half of 2013: 7-2, 2.57 ERA
...and we all know what happened in the playoffs.

It is naive to expect Lester's second-half numbers to be his final 2014 stat line. Even still, he looked like a changed man this season. Under constant scrutiny since the Red Sox's infamous "Beergate," Lester finally looked like the Jon Lester of old after the All Star break. If he truly is refocused, and a World Series title would indicate so, the talented lefty is well worth the roster spot on your 2014 team.

Cuddyer was simply too much to pass up this late. In a dynasty or keeper league, maybe you would have to think about this selection. In a re-draft league, this is as easy as it gets.
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Round: 15
(141) Team One - Julio Teheran SP
** (142) Team PETE - Addison Reed RP
(143) Team Three - Brad Miller SS
(144) Team Four - Michael Morse RF
(145) Team Five - Brandon Moss 1B
(146) Team Six - Nelson Cruz RF
(147) Team Seven - Adam Lind 1B
(148) Team Eight - Chase Headley 3B
(149) Team Nine - Jonathan Papelbon RP
(150) Team Ten - Everth Cabrera SS

Round: 16
(151) Team Ten - Daniel Murphy 2B
(152) Team Nine - Rafael Soriano RP
(153) Team Eight - CC Sabathia SP
(154) Team Seven - Austin Jackson CF
(155) Team Six - Brandon Belt 1B
(156) Team Five - C.J. Wilson SP
(157) Team Four - Josh Reddick RF
(158) Team Three - Adam Eaton LF
** (159) Team PETE - Hiroki Kuroda SP
(160) Team One - R.A. Dickey SP 
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He is no Chapman, but Reed did lock down two more saves than Chapman last year on a much worse team. I would gladly take Reed 9 rounds later as my first closer. Please keep in mind, this is not to say Reed is anywhere near as good as Chapman. It is simply to point out the fact that saves can be a crap-shoot and you will be much better off to use your 6th round pick on a reliable bat or a staff ace as opposed to an "elite" closer.

Kuroda had a spectacularly bad second-half to his 2013 season. The 39 year old righty was perhaps feeling some fatigue. Despite the assumed fatigue, he was still able to eclipse 200 innings with an ERA under 3.35. You are not drafting Kuroda for those numbers at this point. Instead, you are hoping the aged vet can come close. A playoff-less Yankees team should keep Kuroda looking a lot fresher to begin 2014 than he looked in the second-half of last season.

Most eye-brow raising selection of these two rounds: Brad Miller, Round 15 Pick 143
The only possible answer I have for Team Three making this pick is that Team Three was drafted by Brad Miller himself. If Brad Miller did not draft this team, I am out of guesses. 
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Round: 17
(161) Team One - Alexei Ramirez SS
** (162) Team PETE - Xander Bogaerts 3B
(163) Team Three - Francisco Liriano SP
(164) Team Four - Nick Swisher 1B
(165) Team Five - Howie Kendrick 2B
(166) Team Six - Alfonso Soriano LF
(167) Team Seven - Brett Gardner CF
(168) Team Eight - Marlon Byrd RF
(169) Team Nine - Steve Cishek RP
(170) Team Ten - Wilson Ramos C

Round: 18
(171) Team Ten - Jurickson Profar 2B
(172) Team Nine - Ernesto Frieri RP
(173) Team Eight - Jason Grilli RP
(174) Team Seven - Nick Markakis RF
(175) Team Six - Asdrubal Cabrera SS
(176) Team Five - Zack Wheeler SP
(177) Team Four - Andrew Cashner SP
(178) Team Three - Bobby Parnell RP
** (179) Team PETE - Jedd Gyorko 2B
(180) Team One - Matt Garza SP 

Round: 19
(181) Team One - Grant Balfour RP
** (182) Team PETE - Casey Janssen RP
(183) Team Three - Michael Bourn CF
(184) Team Four - Curtis Granderson CF
(185) Team Five - Will Middlebrooks 3B
(186) Team Six - Tony Cingrani SP
(187) Team Seven - Clay Buchholz SP
(188) Team Eight - Mark Teixeira 1B
(189) Team Nine - Dan Haren SP
(190) Team Ten - Torii Hunter RF

Round: 20
(191) Team Ten - Danny Salazar SP
(192) Team Nine - Sonny Gray SP
(193) Team Eight - Colby Rasmus CF
(194) Team Seven - Melky Cabrera LF
(195) Team Six - Brian Dozier 2B
(196) Team Five - Jason Castro C
(197) Team Four - Huston Street RP
(198) Team Three - Drew Smyly RP
** (199) Team PETE - Patrick Corbin SP
(200) Team One - Kendrys Morales 1B 
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I already drafted a young, potential-filled third basemen in Machado and I also have that Cabrera guy, but Bogaerts should gain shortstop eligibility about mid-way through April. Unless, of course, the Red Sox decide to bring back Stephen Drew. Bogaerts has exhibited fantastic plate-discipline and has the tools to be an instant fantasy stud.

Corbin is an interesting pick this year because of his night and day 2013 season. He was outstanding until about half-way through August, finishing the season with some very ugly starts. Owners rightfully began questioning his fantasy value going forward. I feel safe with him as my sixth starter. When drafting in 10 team leagues, keep in mind that pitchers from the waiver-wire who randomly blossom into fantasy gifts pop up each season. As a matter of fact, Corbin is an excellent example of one from the 2013 season.

Most eye-brow raising selection of these four rounds: Michael Bourn, Round 19 Pick 183
My how the mighty have fallen. Bourn may not be the elite base stealer he was in Houston and he quite possibly will never live up to the contract Cleveland gave him. However, this late, he is a steal (no pun intended). He won't even be 32 years old until next December and this is a player who stole 60 bases in a single season twice. He probably isn't going to steal 60 again but 40 is still attainable for the speedy center-fielder.
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Round: 21
(201) Team One - Johnny Cueto SP
** (202) Team PETE - Fernando Rodney RP
(203) Team Three - Justin Morneau 1B
(204) Team Four - B.J. Upton CF
(205) Team Five - Jarrod Parker SP
(206) Team Six - Jake Peavy SP
(207) Team Seven - Eric Young Jr. LF
(208) Team Eight - Alejandro De Aza CF
(209) Team Nine - John Axford RP
(210) Team Ten - Justin Masterson SP

Round: 22
(211) Team Ten - Dan Straily SP
(212) Team Nine - Neftali Feliz RP
(213) Team Eight - Lance Lynn SP
(214) Team Seven - Zack Cozart SS
(215) Team Six - Christian Yelich LF
(216) Team Five - A.J. Burnett SP
(217) Team Four - Jimmy Rollins SS
(218) Team Three - Tommy Hunter RP
** (219) Team PETE - Evan Gattis C
(220) Team One - Danny Farquhar RP

Round: 23
(221) Team One - Marco Estrada SP
** (222) Team PETE - Yovani Gallardo SP
(223) Team Three - Ryan Cook RP
(224) Team Four - Khris Davis LF
(225) Team Five - Bartolo Colon SP
(226) Team Six - Ervin Santana SP
(227) Team Seven - Erick Aybar SS
(228) Team Eight - Tim Lincecum SP
(229) Team Nine - Jim Henderson RP
(230) Team Ten - Norichika Aoki RF

Round: 24
(231) Team Ten - Jonathan Villar SS
(232) Team Nine - Jose Veras RP
(233) Team Eight - Matt Dominguez 3B
(234) Team Seven - Ivan Nova SP
(235) Team Six - John Lackey SP
(236) Team Five - Chris Archer SP
(237) Team Four - Nolan Arenado 3B
(238) Team Three - Alex Wood SP
** (239) Team PETE - Chris Tillman SP
(240) Team One - Nate Jones RP

Round: 25
(241) Team One - Rex Brothers RP
** (242) Team PETE - Corey Hart 1B
(243) Team Three - Dexter Fowler CF
(244) Team Four - Rick Porcello SP
(245) Team Five - Angel Pagan CF
(246) Team Six - Jonathon Niese SP
(247) Team Seven - Anthony Rendon 2B
(248) Team Eight - Junior Lake LF
(249) Team Nine - Taijuan Walker SP
(250) Team Ten - Joaquin Benoit RP 
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Even with Janssen and Reed already on my roster, I was content to grab a closer as accomplished and proven as Fernando Rodney with the 202nd pick in the draft. Without going on another tirade about closers, the 22nd round pick was also a pleasant acquisition. I may have the least-valued catcher in this league but assuming Gattis will be able to crack somewhere above 20 HR and 70 RBI (which is a lot to ask, but attainable) the catcher position should be all set. Similar to closers, I have a tough time ponying up the pick it takes to get a catcher like Joe Mauer when guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Allen Craig are still available.

The final product:
C - E. Gattis
1B - E. Encarnacion
2B - M. Carpenter
3B - M. Cabrera
SS - J. Reyes
2B/SS - J. Gyorko
1B/3B - M. Machado
OF - G. Stanton
OF - J. Bautista
OF - J. Hamilton
OF - A. Gordon
OF - M. Cuddyer
UTIL - X. Bogaerts

Starting Pitchers: M. Cain, G. Gonzalez, M. Wacha, J. Lester, H. Kuroda, P. Corbin, Y. Gallardo, C. Tillman
Relief Pitchers: A. Reed, C. Janssen, F. Rodney

Bench: C. Hart

Looking back on this draft, I would give myself a grade of: C. While I do believe the offense could be pretty potent, there is almost too much injury risk combined with unproven bats. In addition, steals are only coming from one player (Reyes) which is far too weak for any league. The pitching certainly looks respectable, but it would need to be well above-average to make up for the many questions the offense has. The crazy yet brilliant thing about fantasy is that while this team was graded as a C, by the end of the season, this could be the best mock drafted team or the worst. We don't know!

Happy drafting everyone! Hope this provided some decent insight.



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2012/writers/cliff_corcoran/06/14/matt.cain.perfect.game/matt-cain-ap2.jpg

Friday, February 7, 2014

Something to Think About Before You Draft

The year is 2008 and the Boston Red Sox (my super-creatively named fantasy team) has reached our league's championship. Finishing with the #1 seed in the league and looking unbeatable, the scent of victory was in the air. The tickling feeling one gets in their stomach when so close to achieving glory was ever so present in my gut. As I gazed upon my computers monitor, I remained convinced that this was it! I was going to take the championship! This, of course, is undoubtedly the same feeling LeBron James would have before Game 5 of the 2012 NBA Finals or the sensation Koji Uehara would have as he trotted to the mound for the 9th inning on the cool night of October 30th, 2013. Alright, alright - maybe I didn't put as much work into my fantasy team as Koji and LeBron would into their respective crafts, but man did it feel like it. Saturday, the second-to-last day of the championship match-up, my dad was taking my brother and I on our annual trip to catch a New York Mets game. No one in our family is a Mets fan but we are all ginormous baseball fans and heading out to see a Mets game was always a fun time. This year we had the pleasure of seeing Johan Santana, one of my favorites growing up, face off against the young up-and-comer Ricky Nolsaco of the Florida Marlins. Ricky was having a great season (what would end up being the best season of his career to date) and he also happened to be on the Boston Red Sox (once again, my poorly named fantasy team). Caught up in the excitement of going to the Mets game, I made a rookie mistake. I forgot to set my lineup. Remember now, we are talking about 2008. I wasn't fortunate enough to own a SmartPhone at the time so once I climbed into my dad's car, it was too late. Ricky would be on my bench for the day. Santana ended up pitching a complete-game shutout and the Mets won the game 2-0. It was enjoyable as always. The bad news was that Ricky also had a great game - on my bench. He struck out 10 Mets that day over 7 innings. On Sunday, I ended up losing the strikeouts category 111-109 and the overall match-up 5-7. Had I put Nolasco in, I would have won strikeouts and tied the overall matchup 6-6. The tiebreaker would have gone to the higher seed. In this case, that was me. Enjoy that off-season, Pete!

There is no way to prepare for crazy, unfortunate situations like that in fantasy. If anything, the moral of that story is to not be a fool and set your roster ahead of time. The unexplainable, unexpected, and unbelievable happen every season. No one expected Jose Bautista to hit 54 homeruns in 2010 and no one could have reasonably assumed Matt Harvey would give owners one of the best first half's in baseball... but then go down for Tommy John in the second half of 2013. Baseball can be random. You can examine stats up and down, look at all the scouting footage you can get your hands on, and even get re-Tweeted by Peter Gammons for making an excellent point. The bottom line is, you can't predict baseball. You can only give your best attempt at predicting the future.

Heading into a draft is a spectacular feeling. It's a clean slate, a chance to show everyone else that you know more than they do. At the same time, it's the easiest (and most obvious) situation where an owner can ruin their season. Some people say owners need to be bold to come out of a draft on top. Others insist that reaching too far for players will almost certainly come back to bite the drafter in their bottom. Whatever system of rules you abide by for your fantasy drafts - stick to it. Who knows? Maybe you end up in a draft with a fantasy mastermind who has a crystal ball in his possession and knows for a fact that Chone Figgins is going to come roaring back into baseball with 50 steals. If that's the case, you lost! Tip your cap. Most likely, though, you will not end up with a predictor of the future. The most likely scenario is that you end up in a draft with a bunch of other weathermen desperate to predict what's coming their way this season. When the clock is ticking on your pick, only you are on that clock. Not Matthew Berry, your grandmother, or the local weatherman. You. So why not make it your pick? Forget all of the outside noise, the suggestions, conjecture, and analyzing. This is your team and if you think CC Sabathia is going to return to the days of sub-3.5 ERA and 200+ strikeouts then reach for him and let the rest of the league prove you wrong - or CC prove you right. Morons like me are always capable of beating ourselves by forgetting to put Nolasco in. True morons, though, are those who let others beat themselves on draft day. Losing is tough. Looking back and wondering why on earth you took someone's advice on your own team is even harder. Trust your gut, draft your own team.
-PB
 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Ricky_Nolasco_Marlins.JPG