Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 Red Sox Preview

Allow me to start off by saying this will be biased. I will do my best to remain as objective as possible but at the end of the day my fandom for this team stretches far beyond the comprehensibility of the human mind. Yes, I think Pablo Sandoval will be fine even though he is fat whereas I think CC Sabathia will suck because he is fat. There are a million factors that go into that random example but most importantly I feel that way because I believe the Yankees suck. So if you clicked this expecting something unbiased, you have been warned - I would go back in time to fight a Megalodon if it meant my victory over the beast would cement a Red Sox World Series title in 2015. There is no need to lie, I am biased, and so are you.

http://dinodiggerman.weebly.com/uploads/2/6/7/1/26718413/640905_orig.jpg
http://dinodiggerman.weebly.com/uploads/2/6/7/1/26718413/640905_orig.jpg








Catcher
Ryan Hannigan was a decent backup option. He has a low ceiling but should be serviceable in his starts. Blake Swihart has the baseball world very excited but, unless he is traded or there is an injury to the starter, he probably won't see much MLB time this season. Personally, I'm excited to see how Christian Vazquez does in his first full-season in the bigs.

“He’s a great kid, and he’s a great catcher,” said Molina, the Cardinals catcher. “We didn’t work out this winter, but we have in the past. We text each other all the time. He asks a lot of questions. He wants to be the best.

“He’s from Puerto Rico like me, and I like to help anyone I can from where I’m from. But Christian is special. The way he handles himself behind the plate. He’s made a lot of progress. I’m not surprised he’s in position to be their starter.”

Yes, that is Yadier Molina, a star Vazquez has been compared to by several around the game (including current teammate and former teammate of Molina's - Joe Kelly, and one of the best catchers [if not the best] of all time - Ivan Rodriguez). In the words of David Ortiz, Vazquez "completely shuts down the running game."

Before all of the people who cry "typical big market fan" start accusing myself or others of saying Vazquez is in fact the next Molina or will even come close to producing like him this season, please keep in mind absolutely no one is assuming that. At the same time, it is intriguing when someone who is so stout defensively behind the dish can also manage to hit .240 when the rest of the team's offense is terribly unproductive. Assuming the Red Sox offense has a major boost in production this season, it might not be too bold to predict a boost in Vazquez's averages. Even if his offense doesn't dramatically improve, his defense isn't going anywhere. And neither will any opposing runners on first, so long as he is behind the plate.

The Infield
Before we dive into the starters and what to expect from them this season, let's talk about the over-looked depth of the Red Sox infield. While it remains to be seen who will make the roster and who won't, it is tough to deny the depth of the Sox's infield in it's current state. Allen Craig is an intriguing piece. Should anything (God forbid) happen to David Ortiz or Mike Napoli, Craig (former All Star) is the next man in. He was a giant disappointment last season for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Red Sox but he has acknowledged that last year is behind him and he is ready to be a middle-of-the-lineup contributor again. Brock Holt certainly has a shorter ceiling than Craig, but his versatility to play almost any infield position as well as his knack for getting on base in key situations could propel him into an important role for the '15 Sox, even if it is in a lesser-role than he had last season. Lastly, Garin Cecchini is an often-overlooked player on the team. It is close to impossible for him to lock down a starting job in the current Sox's infield, but his production at Pawtucket this year will dictate his future. He is a career .298 hitter in the minors, and that includes a stretch at the make-or-break Double A level in which he hit .296 in about 300 plate appearances. If (or, perhaps more appropriately, when) the injury bug strikes the Red Sox, Cecchini will certainly get a look if there is an infield opening.

The Red Sox starting infield is essentially locked in. Mike Napoli at first, Dustin Pedroia at second, Xander Bogaerts (already two home runs this spring) at short stop, and newcomer Pablo Sandoval at third. The return to health from Napoli and Pedroia as well as the full Major League season under the belt of Bogaerts should improve the overall production of the Sox's infield. The key difference is obviously the big man at third. Should he give the Red Sox the type of season he is truly capable of producing, it could be the difference-maker between an elite-offensive infield and an "OK" offensive-infield. With the addition of ground ball pitchers to the rotation (Porcello, Masterson, etc.), a lot will be put onto the shoulders of this infield defensively. The right side is certainly up to the task, I just hope the left side is (Bogaerts, Sandoval).
http://l.yimg.com/os/en_US/Sports/USA_Today/20141125_jla_sj7_036.jpg-37338a88c393a703b1da91b1b349584d

The Outfield
What Shane Victorino did for this team in 2013 will be remembered forever by every Red Sox fan fortunate enough to have witnessed it. The big hits, the almost-.300 average, the steals, everything was memorable and truly awesome. With that said, I almost puked a little when manager John Farrell proclaimed that if Victorino is healthy, he is the starter - all before Spring Training really even started. Come on John! At least make him earn it. After back surgery and a long career of injuries, diving into walls, and deep playoff runs, isn't it a little reasonable to assume both Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo could out-produce him? Maybe John just wants to show some confidence in the veteran who helped give his manager his first winning season, maybe he assumes Victorino will be dealt and wants to show other teams the amount of confidence the manager has in proclaiming him as his starter, who knows? Whatever the reason is for his comments, they more than likely sparked a bit of frustration from Rusney Castillo and Mookie Betts. Two players who showed supreme skills last season and project to be long-time contributors to this Red Sox club.

I love Shane Victorino. I am comfortable saying that. However, it would be tough to watch a veteran struggle with back problems through what could be his last season in baseball all while either Mookie Betts or Rusney Castillo tears up the minors in frustration - all because the manager couldn't turn on his veteran and run the team with his mind instead of his heart. Now I am accusing someone of something they haven't done yet, but this is something to monitor closely.

Hanley Ramirez has left-field to himself. He should be fine for the 81 home games.  If Manny Ramirez could, at times, look like a Gold Glover playing with the Monster behind him, than so can this much-more-athletic Ramirez. His bat will produce, and his defense shouldn't be so bad that it prevents the team from winning.

I have not even mentioned Jackie Bradley Jr. I have no interest in waiting for his bat while this team rosters players in their primes and its most important offensive piece is 39 years old. If Bradley Jr. starts producing at Triple A, he should be dealt immediately. The team has plenty of outfield depth (even though I think Craig's outfield days are done) and if JBJ can bring the team a strong return than pull the trigger. Give his career a chance, and move on from him. Daniel Nava, meanwhile, has a better chance at getting traded than locking down a starting spot. Though I wouldn't mind seeing him as a depth piece off the bench.

http://www.trbimg.com/img-547648b0/turbine/la-sp-dn-dodgers-hanley-ramirez-red-sox-20141126

The Rotation

*throws up on keyboard*

Alright, alright, I'll admit: it isn't that bad. I had numerous overreactions on social media and in conversation with others but I have admittedly come around, a little bit. Rick Porcello is a stud. He may not be an ace, but the Red Sox won that deal as far as I'm concerned. Yoenis Cespedes was heading into malcontent territory and the team had plenty of outfield depth as it was. Porcello is at home in New England and should help lead this staff. Clay Buchholz excites me as much as a bucket of mud does. I am immune to his occasional hot-stretch and subsequent tricking myself into thinking he is even close to an ace. For half of a season, he absolutely was an ace. That's it. He has otherwise been a heaping pile of disappointment for the team. If he produces at a high level in April, I will be happy but not tricked. He is what he is. 

Newcomers Wade Miley and Justin Masterson provide the team with "innings-eaters" (the most over-used and asinine term in baseball - and that is saying something). I'm not sure how badly the Red Sox want their innings "eaten" by 4.34 and 5.88 ERAs (Miley's and Masterson's ERAs from 2014). If that was their goal, they will certainly exceed it. How much they exceed it by, though, is the real question, as I am not exactly excited by either of them. Should the team add an ace by the trade deadline (which they need to do if they want to win a World Series), I will be much happier with Masterson in a long-relief role and less pressure on Miley as a forth/fifth starter instead of a third. Miley may have a future with the team, but I do have my concerns for a player who posted mediocre numbers in a division with some big parks, bottom-half offenses, and of course the stupid "pitchers must bat" rule transitioning into a division with the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, and designated hitters. If either of the two pitchers are to surprise Red Sox fans this season (in a good way), it is Miley.

Joe Kelly, contrary to popular belief (sarcasm), will not win the 2015 American League Cy Young Award (that will, of course, go to Clay Buchholz). Despite below-average stats, Kelly wasn't all that bad for the Red Sox in 2014. With that said, he is nothing to write home about either. An ace needs to be added if this team wants to be playing into late October. 
http://media.kmov.com/images/470*261/JoeKelly_Media.jpg
http://media.kmov.com/images/470*261/JoeKelly_Media.jpg
The Bullpen 
Koji Uehara was himself in the first-half of last season, but there has to be at least a little concern for a pitcher who is turning 40 before the season starts and had an ERA over 4.00 in the second-half. The Sox cannot afford to have Koji fall apart this season. Even if he does return to his elite-closing form, the bullpen could have some potential issues. Junichi Tazawa saw his ERA jump in the second-half as well, and Craig Breslow had a horrible season. This could spell trouble for the Red Sox toward the end of games, especially given the question marks in their rotation.

There is some room for optimism, though. Edward Mujica was nails in the second-half last season, even in Uehara's absence (6 saves, 1.78 ERA in second-half of 2014). More will be asked of the talented Brandon Workman, despite the righty taking a step-back in his career last season. The addition of Alexi Ogando was a low-risk, high-reward signing that could help the Sox down the stretch with a strong, experienced arm.

I would love to see the Red Sox add an ace, in case you couldn't tell. Not only because they need someone to anchor this staff and face guys like Felix Hernandez, David Price, Garrett Richards, etc. in a possible Wild Card situation, but also because that would most-likely mean Masterson would go to the pen. I am much more comfortable with him in a long-relief or even specialist role (righties bat .220 against him) than as a starter. It would give more depth to an old bullpen.

In Conclusion
The Red Sox are shaping up to have a strong 2015 season (and beyond). The team has a solid mix of producing-veterans and young players to build a future around. While I am hesitant to predict a World Series birth, no one thought they would win it in 2013 either. The playoffs are certainly attainable, and if the offense stays healthy and Ben Cherington adds a Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, or some pitcher of that nature than the sky is the limit with this team.