Every Monday one starter owned in less than 25% of ESPN standard leagues (if you don't know what that means, read this article)
will be selected for you to start if you are in need of a spot start
that week. Last week I selected Robbie Erlin and of course he landed on the disabled list before his start. Sorry! I'll try to do better this week with Jorge De La Rosa, the Colorado Rockies lefty. Tomorrow he faces off against the Philadelphia Phillies.
De La Rosa has put up pretty nice numbers, especially considering he pitches in the toughest park to pitch in, Coors Field. He's 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA and impressive 1.15 WHIP. He hasn't given up an earned run in his last 12 innings pitched. After winning five starts in a row, De La Rosa's last start was cut short due to a rain delay but through his first three innings against an impressive Giants offense he didn't give up a hit and only one walk.
Last year at Citizen's Bank Park, where the Phillies play, De La Rosa tossed 6.1 innings and only gave up two earned runs. He surrendered just three hits in the contest. Since April 11th, De La Rosa has only given up 3 earned runs once. In his other six starts since then, he hasn't given up more than two earned runs in a single outing. He is 5-1 since that date. De La Rosa is on fire.
Righties aren't hitting much better against De La Rosa with a .218 average, but lefties are hitting a pathetic .188 against him. Who on the Phillies are lefties? Well, I'm sure everyone reading this has heard of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Those two are lefties. Domonic Brown, a Phillies' outfielder, is having a down year after a hot first half to last year and it doesn't look like that will change tomorrow against De La Rosa as he is also a lefty. In addition, only three teams in all of the major leagues have scored less runs than the Phillies this season. Combine that with the fact that De La Rosa is pitching outstanding baseball recently and you have all the necessary ingredients for a great outing tomorrow.
Why you shouldn't listen to me: Honestly, there are too many reasons! It just so happened that De La Rosa, I felt, had the best chance out of all of the other pitchers owned in less than 25% of ESPN standard leagues this week to give a quality outing. Let's examine why you possibly shouldn't listen to me...
Jorge De La Rosa's career record against the Phillies is 1-4 with an ERA over 6.00. In 33.2 career innings against them, he's surrendered 24 earned runs. Despite the aforementioned Utley being a lefty, he is a career 4 for 11 against De La Rosa. Catcher Carlos Ruiz and shortstop Jimmy Rollins are a combined 9 for 24 in their careers against De La Rosa.
Even though many starters find it very difficult to pitch in Coors, De La Rosa loves it this season. His ERA at home is 2.49. His ERA this season on the road, though (and tomorrow's game is on the road in Philly), is 5.20.
Clearly, even with a pitcher as hot as De La Rosa has been against an offense as bad as the Phillies' has been, there is reason to be concerned. De La Rosa certainly isn't a Clayton Kershaw, but out of pitchers currently owned in under 25% of ESPN standard leagues, he's your best bet at a quality outing this week.
Every Monday one starter owned in less than 25% of ESPN standard leagues (if you don't know what that means, read this article) will be selected for you to start if you are in need of a spot start that week. I don't promise to nail it every time, but I will try to provide a reasonable enough explanation as to why you should do so.
This week's selection is none other than San Diego Padres' southpaw Robbie Erlin. The 23 year old slinger has a 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, so why the heck should you start him? The easy answer is that only five teams in all of Major League Baseball have scored less runs and batted for a lower team-average than the Cubbies, Erlin's foe on Friday. Let's dig a little deeper, though.
The Cubs leading run scorer, Anthony Rizzo, who is also second on the team in home runs and RBI, had a career .194 average against lefties going into this season. Yes, he has improved dramatically on that number so far this year but keep in mind that is a tiny sample of 48 at bats whereas the .194 average from the previous three seasons stems from 320 at bats.
Erlin did struggle his last time out against the Rockies, but who doesn't struggle against them this season? His three starts before that outing were all quality starts in which he struck out no less than five batters each time out. Erlin will also be at home against the Cubs Friday. His ERA at home? 2.92. That might have something to do with these huge dimensions:
Yes, that is what you would call a "pitchers park." PETCO Park sports some of the largest dimensions in the MLB and should help Erlin keep guys like Rizzo and Olt within the park, not over it.
Why you shouldn't listen to me: I may have made Erlin seem pretty appetizing, which was no doubt my intent. I am sending him out there in my 16 team head-to-head keeper, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Either way, you should know some other details before going all in on Erlin.
Erlin pitched two innings of relief against the Cubs last season in which he gave up three hits, a home run, and two earned runs. One of those hits included an RBI double from the aforementioned lefty, Rizzo. It should be noted, though, that all of those hits and earned runs were given up in garbage time as San Diego had already accumulated a 13-5 lead going into Erlin's inning. Still, there is history there that favors the Cubs.
In addition, two of the Cubs' best (fantasy) hitters this season, Mike Olt (9 HR... although he has a pathetic .176 overall BA) and Starlin Castro (.302, 22 RBI), are both right-handed bats and are hitting lefties pretty well this season. Olt's average against lefties is only .242, but that is over .060 higher than his overall batting average. Castro is hitting .308 against lefties. Right-handed hitters as a whole are batting .303 against Erlin, which is scary, especially considering the Cubs also have right-handed hitters Emilio Bonafacio (batting .400 against lefties), Junior Lake (only .222), and Wellington Castillo (.241).
There is definite reason to be skeptical about starting Erlin. After all, he is only owned in 1.0% of ESPN standard leagues. Still, for those of us doctoring injuries on our rosters, streaming starters is the way to go. Erlin may never be Clayton Kershaw, but he does give owners a decent chance at a strong outing on Friday. I've got faith that Erlin can spin a passable game against the Cubbies.
Predicted Stat Line: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 Ks
That's a quality start and a heck of a K/9 ratio. Fingers crossed.
"Since the beginning of spring training, Fernandez will be the 18th
pitcher on a major league roster to need elbow reconstruction because
of a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament, already surpassing the
average from 2000-11 (15.8) and nearly equaling last season's total of
19."
Eighteenth? Eighteenth? EIGHTEENTH?! If you are one of the unfortunate owners who drafted Fernandez - a pitcher "some people on other teams" regarded as having "the best stuff in the game, and it's not close," - then your pitching is definitely hurting. There's also the possibility you drafted Tampa Bay's flamethrower Matt Moore or, if your draft was in early March, Atlanta Braves' starter Kris Medlen. These are just a few of the names that have gone down with Tommy John surgery this season. Those unlucky owners who spent a decently high pick on any of these pitchers may have less trouble replacing them than anticipated.
There are strong pitchers available in many leagues that are just waiting to be picked up. For the sake of making this piece not-so-obvious, I am going to ignore any starting pitchers that are owned in more than 25% of ESPN's standard leagues. Therefore, chances are, if you are in a shallow 10 man league, there's a high likelihood that there are better players available. How can you tell if a player is owned in less than 25% of ESPN's standard leagues? Look here:
Tim Lincecum, as you can see, is owned in 41.5% of ESPN standard leagues.
Here's a list of five starting pitchers who could possibly be available in your league, and are worth a look if you need SP help.
Drew Pomeranz, OAK (owned in 16.8% of ESPN standard leagues)
3-1; 1.14 ERA; 1.01 WHIP; 24 Ks in 23.2 IP
The fifth overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft, Pomeranz was the centerpiece of the package of players sent to the Colorado Rockies in 2011 for then-ace Ubaldo Jimenez by the Cleveland Indians. Through 30 starts for the Rockies, Pomeranz was horrible. He finished his career as a Rockie 4-14 with an ERA north of 5.00. So why should we now trust him just because he's pitched well through a measly 23.2 IP and only two starts? Simply put: Curt Young, Oakland's pitching coach. Young has made pitchers like Tommy Milone, Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Cahill look a lot better than most would agree they actually are. Did anyone see the season Bartolo Colon had last year as an Athletic? There's ample evidence to suggest Curt Young is a pitching-coach-god.
Is it crazy to think that Curt Young has possibly "fixed" Pomeranz? I don't think so. The southpaw has two plus pitches and routinely visits the 93-95mph range. Don't let durability concern you if you are looking at the 5IP in both of his starts. He started the season as a reliever and is still being stretched out as a starter again following the demotion of Dan Straily. If you're desperate for K's or simply trying to replace an injured starter like Fernandez, give Pomeranz a try. Now, speaking of Ubaldo...
...Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL (24.0%)
2-4; 4.02 ERA; 1.45 WHIP; 41 Ks in 47.0 IP
I know, I know. It would take a giant leap of faith for most people to even consider adding Jimenez. After his dominating 2010 season (which even teetered off the rails a bit in the second half of the season), Jimenez has been a pretty bad starter. That was, of course, until after the All Star Break last season during which Jimenez posted an ERA under 2.00! He has gotten off to a slow start in 2014 but over his last three starts Jimenez has gone 19.2 IP, only giving up 1 ER over that span, with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. While it is unfeasible to expect those numbers to continue, Ubaldo is worth a look if he can keep up the pace he started last July.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (9.1%)
4-2; 3.06 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; 47 Ks in 53.0 IP
Keuchel is fresh off of two outstanding wins against a pair of the best offenses in the American League, Texas and Detroit. He sports a strong slider, a decent change up, and a go-to sinker. While definitely more of a ground ball pitcher with that sinker, his other breaking pitches still should be solid enough for him to bring in a decent number of K's. Rarely do Houston pitchers ever warrant an add but Keuchel may be your man. He may not win a lot, and his K numbers will be pedestrian, but his ratios should remain above-average.
Jose Quintana, CWS (14.7%)
1-3; 3.67 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; 40 Ks in 49.0 IP
The 25 year old Quintana hasn't exactly lit the world on fire through his first several professional seasons, but he has been very solid. For those that don't know, a quality start (QS) is when a pitcher goes at least 6 IP in a start and gives up no more than 3 ER. Going in to May 16th's games, the following pitchers have had seven quality starts: Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Michael Wacha, James Shields, Adam Wainwright, and Cliff Lee. Here is one more: Jose Quintana. Two of Quintana's quality starts have come against Detroit and another came in Colorado against the league's best offense so far this season.
Bronson Arroyo, ARI (9.0%)
4-2; 4.15 EA; 1.32 WHIP; 27 Ks in 47.2 IP
Yes, he's 37 years old and yes, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out. But remember, we're going dumpster-diving for help here. Arroyo's awful start to the season made owners quickly forget just how effective he was last season when he had 14 wins and a WHIP of only 1.14. He has since re-emerged as a reliable starter after that awful start, going 3-0 in his last four appearances, all quality starts, with 19 Ks and only 3 ER over 29.2 IP. He's not perfect and just simply not worth it in shallow leagues, but he is much better than his percentage-owned would indicate.
The fact is, you can't simply "replace" Jose Fernandez. You can add one or more of these pitchers, someone else, make a trade, or stream the spot. None of those options will replace what Fernandez would have given (unless you trade for an ace, of course). However, it is still way too early to give up, no matter your injury troubles. It's easy to complain and forget about a team (sacrilegious to me, but I see it every season) because of its injuries. Owners with respect for their league and the wonderful game of fantasy baseball will continue onward. Trust me, you aren't the only one with injured players on your team.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers have been blessing fans with some of the greatest basketball this season's outstanding playoffs have brought us so far. With that said, Game 5's epic collapse by Chris Paul and the Los Angeles Clippers never should have happened in the first place. While yes, there is no excuse for blowing a 13 point lead with under four minutes to go, it is tough to believe the Clippers would have actually blown that lead if it weren't for some awful calls from the officials.
We can totally ignore that the Thunder (they were at home for this one) shot 36 free throws and the Clippers shot 16 less with 20, right? I mean, 28 of those 36 were all from Kevin Durant (12) or Russell Westbrook (16). Those guys are always attacking the hoop and drawing fouls. No way did they benefit from home court!
Wait, what's that? Westbrook and Durant only combined for 15 free throws during Game 3 in Los Angeles? Get out of town! It's almost as if they get more foul calls when they play at home. That is totally bizarre! Sarcasm aside, it should be noted that even in LA, the Thunder shot more free throws that game. And yes, it is once again because OKC's wings are more likely to attack the basket and draw a foul. Going in to Game 5, OKC and LAC had both taken 107 free throws in the series. That must mean that calls are going both ways, right down the middle, right? To the naked eye, sure it does. Consider, though, that OKC instituted a bit of hack-a-DeAndre in games one and four of the series, where he would go a combined 2 for 15, and all of a sudden maybe the calls aren't really going both ways. Either way, it is too close to honestly say the refs have been favoring one side or the other. There is no reason to think there is some elaborate scheme by the NBA. They make a ton of money no matter the result. Either the giant-market of LA advances along with their closely-followed owner's debacle, or one of the NBA's biggest stars advances to the next stage. It is a win-win for the NBA.
The player in the white is Reggie Jackson of OKC and the player in the blue is Matt Barnes of LA. This play happened with 11.3 seconds left in the game, with the Clippers leading 104 to 102. It was ruled Oklahoma City's ball, even though anyone can clearly see that the ball went out off of Reggie Jackson's hand. Mind you, this play was reviewed by the refs and still ruled Thunder ball.
The article I got that picture from provides this definition of the ruling justifying the call:
The problem is that Barnes hit Jackson's left arm and the ball went out off of his right. Therefore, that is most certainly a blown call. Doc Rivers went into a frenzy and after the game had this to say:
Of course the world is out to attack Chris Paul now. I'm not quite sure why CP3 rubs so many people the wrong way. Yes, he is a notorious flopper. So what? It is a part of the game now (albeit smaller ever since the fines were put into place - whether people believe it or not). Name me your favorite player and I'm sure I can find you ample examples of him flopping.
What is it, then? His lack of success on a horrible team in New Orleans? His lack of success last year with a coach who made no adjustments and a Blake Griffin (sometimes) playing on one ankle? Or his "turnover" in Game 1 against Golden State where, after review, it was incredibly clear that Draymond Green hacked the living hell out of Paul but since the NBA's rules are just so great they couldn't change the call to a foul and instead had to say the ball was out of bounds off Paul?
Or his horrible State Farm commercials? For that, I could not blame someone. Please, let them end. And for those who Google, "Is Cliff Paul real?" ... get off the internet.
There really isn't an excuse for Paul's last 16 seconds of play tonight. Before the final 16 seconds, Jamal Crawford had one of the worst timed and executed isolations anyone had all night...
...Jamal, you had Kendrick Perkins on you out on the perimeter. I'm fairly certain even Adam Morrison could have shattered him there. Go practice your layups.
After his failure, CP3's brain farts began. Durant brought OKC within two quickly. However, the game was down to less than 24 seconds, turning the shot clock off and as long as LA could make their free throws the game was theirs. Instead, as Westbrook ran toward Chris Paul to foul him with 16 seconds left at half-court, Paul attempted to shoot in order to receive three foul shots....
...Why Chris? If you made both free throws, it would be a two-possession game with 16 seconds left. You don't need three free throws...
Anyway, instead of fouling, Westbrook steals the ball from Paul's pathetic attempt at drawing the three-shot foul. This is when the ball was passed to Jackson, and then deflected out of bounds.
Did Chris Paul mess up? Big time. Did Matt Barnes bail him out? You bet he did. Unfortunately, the refs didn't see it that way. They gift-wrapped the ball to Oklahoma City.
If the refs want to call a foul there, then sure that makes sense. There is clear contact. But this brings us back to the Clippers' Game 1 against Golden State, doesn't it? Remember this play?
This seems like a complete role-reversal, doesn't it? Well, good 'ole Chris Paul didn't have the call go his way in either instance. Paul was hacked by the Warriors' Green, and it was clear in the replay. By NBA rules, however, they could not call the foul after review. Instead, they can only change who it was out off of and clearly it was out off of Paul (after he was fouled). Possession: Golden State. How about a little consistency, fellas?
This time around, even if Barnes fouled Jackson, the refs can only determine who it was out off of. And they determined that it was out off of Barnes? Really?
Chris Paul messed up. He should have just taken the foul and shot his free throws. Nevertheless, his teammate bailed him out. The Clippers were in a position to win, thanks in large part to Paul's double-double (he's had one in each game in this series so far). The referees, however, would not allow it.
Paul did mess up again. With less than 7 seconds left, Westbrook pulled up for an ill-advised three-pointer and completely bricked it. However, a foul was called on Chris Paul who may have slightly grazed Westbrook's arm on the shot. While it was definitely a very weak call, TNT announcer Steve Kerr got it right: you can't be that close to Westbrook there and give the ref a reason to blow the whistle. Paul got too close. Shame on him for trying to lock down on the last possession. He should have known where he was playing.
Within the last 6 seconds, Paul and the Clippers had a chance to take the win anyway. They were only down by 1. Paul tried to dribble his way to the hoop and dish the ball to Blake Griffin. Instead, he was stripped. Game over, OKC 105 LAC 104.
There's no crying in basketball. Chris Paul messed up badly. Did he put his team in a position to win, though? On the road in one of the toughest places to play? Yup, and the refs stole it from him.
Game 6 should be electrifying and NBA fans will truly be treated if this series goes to seven games. Hopefully the calls aren't so bad in the future.
The American League East has long been considered the most dangerous and loaded division in Major League Baseball. Right now, the AL West and National League West both look better with seven of the ten total teams between those two divisions posting records above .500. However, as we've seen year in and year out, the AL East is the division with the most true and battle-tested baseball titans. In April, it looked as though the New York Yankees were the favorite to win the division and that the Boston Red Sox were sorely missing their former All Star center-fielder, now Yankee, Jacoby Ellsbury. Their play in the field was lazy, their pitchers were inconsistent, and the hitting was essentially absent. They definitely looked like they had a serious case of World Series hangover. Fast forward a few weeks, and the division looks a lot different with last year's Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays sitting in last place and the Baltimore Orioles in first. What is it going to take for a team to maintain control of the East? It's simple! Health.
No different than any other division in the league, the winner will be determined by who can stay the healthiest. Toronto already lost shortstop Jose Reyes earlier in the season for an extended period, but he has since returned. Also returning to the Jays is closer Casey Janssen. Is that a big deal? Ask Sergio Santos and his three blown saves in eight chances (now himself on the disabled list).
Sorry, Sergio. Toronto's pitching is, at best, mediocre (no offense, Buehrle, you've been great). Still, a lineup consisting of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Reyes is deadly - as long as its healthy. While not as big a name as those, it looks as though Colby Rasmus might be headed to the disabled list. Or, at least according to his manager he could be.
The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox have not been immune to the injury bug either. The O's started their season without promising third basemen Manny Machado and later lost slugging first basemen Chris Davis for 15 days to a strained left oblique. The Orioles managed an 8-3 record during Davis' absence. While those injuries were tough to swallow for O's fans (both players are currently healthy and playing), the most serious loss is undoubtedly catcher Matt Wieters. Wieters is considered by many to be one of the premiere defensive catchers in the game. His recent elbow issue has some considering the possibility of the catcher requiring surgery and missing an extended period of time. The Orioles pitching staff is already in shambles. As a club, their ERA is over 4.00. Their closer, Tommy Hunter, has given up at least one earned run in his last three appearances, including a blown save his last time out against the Houston Astros. The loss of Wieters is devastating for the Orioles. His rock solid defense and game calling behind the plate has made some of the Orioles' less-appealing starters look serviceable. Without him, the staff could potentially get even worse.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, started the season without right-fielder Shane Victorino and eventually also lost third basemen Will Middlebrooks. Though Middlebrooks and Victorino may not be the scariest of names to most pitchers in the league, the Sox still felt their absences hard as the offense really slacked earlier in the season without them. Middlebrooks had to sit Sunday's game as well, though, after getting hit on the hand in Saturday night's contest against Texas.
The Tampa Bay Rays' season has gone a lot like this so far:
Though a playoff team last year, the Rays sit at 16-23, last in the division. They lost starter Matt Moore to season-ending Tommy John surgery and starter Alex Cobb to an oblique strain. They have also been without starter Jeremy Hellickson all season since his arthroscopic surgery on his throwing elbow. Ace David Price has an ERA of 4.53 this season and the fifth of Tampa Bay's starters, Chris Archer, has been abysmal with an ERA of 5.16! With three starters sidelined with injuries and the other two pitching horribly, the Rays have really struggled in the mighty AL East with an 8-11 inter-division record. The offense has stayed relatively healthy, but that has never been the Rays' strong suit and isn't this year. Tampa Bay needs Cobb and Hellickson back as soon as possible.
Maybe Price should stop naming things and focus on getting hitters out...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3qr_IOpTEo
Finally, we have the Bronx Bombers. After a pretty hot start, the Yankees have really come down to earth thanks to, you guessed it, injuries. While newly signed Carlos Beltran (.240 BA) and Brian McCann (.214) have certainly left a lot to be desired at the plate, it has been the injuries to the pitching staff that has really decimated the men in pin stripes. Like the Rays, the Yankees are currently missing three of the top five starters on their depth chart - CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova. Nova had season-ending elbow surgery. He was extremely terrible before that, so the loss isn't too significant, but the Yankees only have so much depth. Michael Pineda, after being suspended for cheating in a game against the Boston Red Sox, suffered a strain in his mid-section causing him a trip to the disabled list. He hasn't made a start since April 23. Lastly, CC Sabathia (who, like Nova, has been terrible) landed on the 15-day disabled list and is set to visit Dr. James Andrews to have his right knee examined. His timetable for a return is unknown.
The only way any of these teams will separate from the rest of the pack is if one stays healthy and the rest don't. It is, for obvious reasons, easier said than done. Pitchers around the league are dropping like flies to Tommy John surgery and many teams are struggling to simply send out a consistent-looking lineup. The AL East will be no different than any other division - the healthiest team will have the best chance.
