Sunday, June 22, 2014

Stream of the Week: Kevin Gausman and Matt Shoemaker

I apologize for not writing a "Stream of the Week" last week! Job searching the first month after college graduation isn't exactly a stress free time period. Even still, baseball stops for no man, mortal or otherwise. To make up for last week, I'll provide two choices for this week (and they both pitch on different days, in case you only have one spot to stream). To jog your memory, two weeks ago the selection was Marcus Stroman against the Minnesota Twins. He was hardly untouchable, but he did give owners a quality start, walked none, and struck out four. We'll call that a fantasy-win, which brings the Pete Talking Sports "Stream of the Week" record to 3-1. Let's hope I can bring that record to 5-1 with these two young arms.

Going into the 2014 season, Baseball Prospectus had Kevin Gausman as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball, Baseball America had him 20th. So far, those rankings have been vindicated by the rookie's efforts. Fantasy owners have been burned by some Baltimore Orioles' pitching prospects in the past. Brian Matusz and Zach Britton were both terribly unsuccessful as starters. Though admittedly, Britton has looked strong in his new found closers role with the club. For those who play in deep dynasty leagues, many were burned by Dylan Bundy's Tommy John surgery. Kevin Gausman, however, is not Britton, Matusz or Bundy. He is healthy, starting, and pitching well. Do not let the often disappointing Orioles' pitching cloud your judgment of Gausman.

Through four starts this season, Gausman is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's logged 16 K's in 23 innings pitched. No team in the American League has scored more runs than the Oakland A's or Toronto Blue Jays, yet Gausman managed to beat both of them. He's lived up to some tough challenges so far this season and if Baltimore wants to continue the success they've had they'll need all the pitching they can get. Gausman is slotted to face the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, a team he just blanked through 6 frames of 5 hit ball in his last start. Does it worry me that now the Rays' lineup has seen his pitches a few times through the order? Possibly a little. I certainly do not expect another zero earned run performance, but another quality start and/or a win is definitely within the realm of possibilities. The game is at home in Baltimore and opposing Gausman is a lineup that is dead-last in the American League in runs scored this season. Gausman is currently owned in 7.2% of ESPN standard leagues.

http://thesportsquotient.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gausman.jpg
http://thesportsquotient.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gausman.jpg

Rookie Matt Shoemaker of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is another strong option to start this week. Shoemaker is scheduled to pitch Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. He has dominated recently. In his last two starts, he's tossed 15.2 frames, striking out 16 and only yielding 3 earned runs. He won both contests. The Angels have been hot, winning their last three games. Whereas the offensively challenged Royals have lost their last four.

While it is true that the Royals have the fifth-best team batting average in Major League Baseball, they are in the bottom-half in runs scored and are tied with the Cardinals for the least amount of home runs. Kansas City isn't a scary offense for Shoemaker to face and owners should add and deploy him with confidence. Shoemaker is owned in 5.5% of ESPN standard leagues.

http://tireball.com/mlb/files/2014/05/mattshoemaker.jpg
http://tireball.com/mlb/files/2014/05/mattshoemaker.jpg

Why you shouldn't listen to me: Similar to the last entry, the only reason to be hesitant with either of these pitchers is that they are rookies. All pitchers, especially rookies, hit slumps and give a bad start every now and then. The best attempt at avoiding these instances is to pick and choose when you start them. Opposite the Rays and Royals, you should feel confident with either of these players. Best of luck, whether you go with my suggestions or not!

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Stream of the Week: Marcus Stroman



Last week's choice got ugly quick. Daisuke unsurprisingly walked 5 hitters and didn't make it out of the 5th inning. Since Robbie Erlin never made it to his start and Jorge De La Rosa was great, we'll say the record so far for Pete Talking Sports' "Stream of the Week" is 1-1. The choice for this week is much more intriguing than Dice-K. Marcus Stroman, RHP (right-handed pitcher) for the surging Toronto Blue Jays, is a 23 year old rookie. He throws a mid-90s fastball with a decent cutter and solid curve. Stroman has shown fantastic control so far this season as he has only walked three hitters over the course of 18.1 innings pitched.

An immediate red flag for those who are not so familiar with Stroman is his 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Those numbers are almost completely due to two awful relief appearances back in mid May. Since then, Stroman has made two starts against the Cardinals and Royals. In those two starts, he's combined for 12 IP, 12 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, and 13 Ks. He won both starts and went six innings both times out. In addition, his GB:FB ratio in those starts was almost 2:1. Stroman has been keeping the ball down, striking batters out (8.35 K/9), and winning games.

Stroman's start this week comes against the lowly Minnesota Twins. Sure, the Twins are almost a .500 ball club so far this season. Regardless, they are 22nd in all of MLB in both batting average and slugging percentage. They have a high OBP but Stroman's control should continue to help him avoid giving up walks and putting hitters on base. If your league counts wins (stupid category, sorry!) then this should ideally be a win for you at least. Toronto is top 5 in the major leagues in runs, BA, OBP, and SLG. When Stroman toes the rubber he'll be opposite Phil Hughes. Hughes is enjoying a solid season so far but he just got rocked by the Astros in his last outing and Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista has a career BA over .300 against him.

Not only will Toronto most-likely win this game (or, to put in better terms, they'll be the favorite) but only four teams in baseball have struck out more times collectively than the Twins (White Sox, Marlins, Mets, Astros). Stroman could give a win and solid strikeout total this week very easily.

http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/26604679/20131120_mjr_su5_089.0_standard_400.0.jpg
http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/26604679/20131120_mjr_su5_089.0_standard_400.0.jpg

 Why you shouldn't listen to me: For one, Stroman is just a rookie. Even with his two impressive starts, he is bound to go through some rough patches. The Twins' (arguably) four best hitters: Mauer, Dozier, Morales, and Willingham, all leave reasons to be skeptical about Stroman's start. Mauer is a flat out great hitter and most likely a Hall of Famer. This year, he's hitting .292 against RHP and both of his home runs have come against righties. Out of Dozier's 12 home runs, 8 have come against RHP. Out of his 13 steals, 12 have come against RHP. Though he hasn't logged any major league at bats so far this season, the newly acquired Kendrys Morales hit 17 of his 23 home runs off RHP last season. Finally, Willingham (who is on fire at the plate right now), is hitting .295 against RHP. These bats will certainly test the Blue Jays' rookie.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Stream of the Week: Daisuke Matsuzaka

There are many appealing scheduled starts this week from pitchers owned in less than 25% of ESPN's standard leagues. David Phelps, Jacob deGrom, Henderson Alvarez, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Tanner Roark, and Tim Koehler are all decent options this week, given the outlined conditions. I've decided to be a little bold though, and go with 33 year old Daisuke Matsuzaka of the New York Mets.

Red Sox fans cringe at the nickname "Dice K." I personally remember having standing room only for a very cold September game and seeing Matsuzaka get lit up by the Tampa Bay Rays years ago. It was by far the worst experience out of many trips I've had to Fenway Park. He's had his moments, like almost all pitchers, but for the most part he has been an unsuccessful hurler. So why start him this week?

Matsuzaka has been impressive as a reliever this season. On the year, he's compiled a very respectable 2.45 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. That's over the course of 29.1 innings pitched in which he's struck out 32 batters. Whether you like the player or not, those numbers are undeniable. Are they truly representative of what you should expect from Dice-K going forward? Most likely not. However, he has certainly been on his game to this point in the season.

A possible reason for this success is that he is throwing more cutters this season than he ever has before. His cutter typically is thrown around 90mph and because he throws it so often now, it's become his best pitch. Matsuzaka's cutter has a 3.0 wCT (cutter runs above average) this season. At 33, its understandable that he would start throwing less fastballs. What is surprising is that he has been able to instead throw cutters more effectively because of the cut down (no pun intended) on fastballs.

Of course, most likely, his stats look better because 1.) it's a small sample size; 2.) it's his first full season in the National League (he didn't join the Mets until August last season); and 3.) he's been a reliever for the most part, where he is often put in the best position to succeed as opposed to starting games against an entire lineup.

Whatever the reason for his success is, and I'm sure it's a combination of all of the above, Dice-K enters his second start of the season against the Cubs, in Chicago, on Wednesday. Dice-K certainly isn't the pitcher Kyle Lohse is. At the same time, Lohse, a RHP (right-handed pitcher) like Dice-K, just pitched a complete game shutout against the Cubs on Sunday. He only surrendered three hits in the entire contest. As stated in the "Robbie Erlin Stream of the Week" article (and not much has changed since), the Cubs are not a very good hitting (or pitching) team.


http://www.metro.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/daisuke_matsuzaka.jpg


Why you shouldn't listen to me: Daisuke has certainly put up the numbers this season to warrant a start here. At the same time, those numbers have come from relief appearances. He has only started once so far this year. Granted, he was successful in his outing. At the same time, this is the same player who couldn't find a major league job until August last year and has a career ERA of 4.44 and WHIP of 1.40. His ERA on the road this year, by the way, is 4.22 compared to a 1.45 at home.

In addition, as I said earlier, there's seven guys owned in less than 25% of ESPN standard leagues that I think also have a solid chance at giving owners a quality outing this week. It should be a good week for streamers. For people like me who can think back to Dice-K's awful days in a Red Sox uniform and still give him a shot, good luck to us. To the rest of you, I wish you luck in your searches for a stream this week.