1. R. Castillo, CF
2. D. Pedroia, 2B
3. D. Ortiz, DH
4. H. Ramirez, LF
5. P. Sandoval, 3B
6. M. Napoli, 1B
7. X. Bogaerts, SS
8. C. Vazquez, C
9. M. Betts (or S. Victorino), RF
While that lineup looks incredibly dangerous, possibly the best in the American League, the projected starting rotation as of right now is... awful:
1. C. Buchholz
2. J. Kelly
3. R. De La Rosa
4. A. Webster
5. A. Ranaudo
No doubt the offense is excellent, but that rotation is putrid. The Red Sox need to make some moves for pitching. With team owner John Henry declaring that he is willing to go over the $189 million luxury tax threshold, the Sox are poised to make some moves for pitching help. Here are some of the arms they could target, with some more likely than others to don the red and white in 2015.
Target #1 - Jon Lester, Free Agent
What a steal it would be for the Red Sox to not only retain their former lefty-ace but to also have Cespedes in the lineup or as a trade piece? Unfortunately for the Sox, they are not even close to the only team targeting the big southpaw. The Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves are all clubs exploring the possibility of adding Lester.
Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino has said, “I learned a long time ago you can’t fall in love with your veterans,’’as well as, "..we prefer shorter to longer-term contracts, and a presumption against really long-term contracts." This could become an issue when trying to acquire Lester, who has reportedly been offered a contract worth over $135 and six years from the Cubs.
Despite Lucchino's comments from last off-season and the Cubs' lucrative long-term offer, the Red Sox remain one of the favorites to acquire Lester. Reports are that the club is willing to go higher than their current $110-120 million over six years offer and Lester insists that he values comfort over money. This leaves hope that he might choose the team and city he has been a part of since his first big-league appearance back in 2006 up until last summer.
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Unlike Lester, Hamels is not a free agent. To acquire him, the Sox would have to part with some of their top young talent. Despite the wide-spread belief that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr is looking for a king's ransom for his ace, ESPN reporter Jayson Stark believes the Phillies may be more flexible than many believe.
So what would it take to land Hamels? It would be shocking to see the Red Sox part with shortstop Xander Bogaerts, though I'm sure he would be the first player asked for by the Phillies. Talks wouldn't hinge on Bogaerts' availability, though. The Red Sox currently possess Cespedes, Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, and Allen Craig as possible outfield options. Talk about depth! Betts is the one that would most likely be a center-piece in a deal for Hamels. He would supply the Phillies with a top young talent and everyday player to begin their long-overdue rebuilding process.
It would take more than just Betts, though. Adding in prospects Henry Owens or Brian Johnson to a package that already contains Betts might seem like overkill to those with knowledge of the Red Sox farm system. However, don't rule out the possibility of the Sox adding in one or even two names such as Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, or Matt Barnes - all names the Sox have valued for a long time and have finally reached the big-league club.
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Shields should be viewed by Sox fans as either an upgrade from John Lackey, or a downgrade from Jon Lester. That will depend on if the Sox view him as a number one or two starter. Shields was given a golden opportunity to inflate his free agent value during the most recent post-season. He entered the playoffs as the ace of the staff and had an excellent defense fielding behind him in Kansas City. Shields shattered this opportunity by finishing the post-season with a 6.12 ERA. He will be 33 years old by the start of the 2015 regular season.
Despite the poor playoffs and older age, the Californian had a strong 2014 regular season. Shields has also started at least 31 games each season since 2006. That kind of consistency is what the Red Sox have come accustomed to with Lester at the top of their rotation.
The market for Shields hasn't really taken form yet, as most pitchers are waiting for Lester to sign a contract and set the standard for the pitchers market this free agency. Shields will of course be expensive. I doubt he sees $20mil/per, however, and because of his age he may have to take a deal for four years instead of five - making him much more attractive to Larry Lucchino's Red Sox.
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Casual baseball fans may have just muttered "who?" Iwakuma is 33 years old but only has three big league seasons under his belt. Here in Boston, most Seattle games aren't on until about 10-10:30PM, when most people are asleep while Iwakuma destroys opposing lineups. So who is this guy? Well he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2013, owns a career ERA of 3.07, and only costs $7 million in 2015. Sounds great! Sign me up!
Want another reason why Iwakuma works for the Red Sox? The Mariners are inquiring upon the availability of outfield power bats. Cespedes for Iwakuma! It makes so much sense!...
...except for the fact that, as I said, Iwakuma will be making $7 million and Cespedes will be making $10.5 million. Now that may not seem like a huge difference, but Seattle may be more content with keeping their co-ace and simply using that $3.5 million toward a free agent bat such as Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios, Melky Cabrera, or Torii Hunter. Regardless, as great as Iwakuma has been, I doubt the Sox would want to lean on a soon-to-be 34 year old who has absolutely no playoff experience, has been pitching in a huge ballpark in low-pressure situations, and only has three MLB seasons under his belt as their ace. If a move for Iwakuma was made, that would be great for the Sox, but more work at the top of their rotation would be necessary.
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Scherzer is widely-regarded as the top arm on the open-market this off-season. The 2013 Cy Young winner went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA last season. Scherzer turned down a six-year $144 million offer from the Detroit Tigers already, and the Scott Boras client looks to receive a contract in the same neighborhood as Clayton Kershaw's seven-year $215 million contract.
It is tough to believe the Red Sox would ever go so high on a contract for a free agent pitcher, especially one already over 30 years old. Who knows just how desperate the Red Sox may get, however. If they swing and miss on Lester and he signs elsewhere, the only other pitchers available that are Lester-caliber are Scherzer and other players through trade. It is also highly unlikely Scherzer receives such a lucrative contract. He will certainly get paid, but over $200 million would be very surprising given how poorly such huge contracts have panned out around the league.
If the Sox do decide to go the Scherzer route, they at least won't have to give up their draft pick. Since they finished in the bottom-third of the league, their first round draft choice is protected. That gives the Red Sox a slight advantage if they do decide to pursue Scherzer. In the end, I believe Scherzer will either head for the National League or sign with the New York Yankees.
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Other possible targets for the Red Sox include: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Chris Sale, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ervin Santana, and Francisco Liriano. All except Santana and Liriano would be difficult to acquire since it would have to be through trade. Sale would, most likely, cost an astronomical amount of high-level prospects. I wouldn't rule out anything, though, given the recent spontaneous signings the Red Sox have made and their willingness to pay to compete.
