Pitching Targets for the Red Sox

Assuming Yoenis Cespedes is traded, which seems to be the consensus most-likely transaction to happen regarding Red Sox outfielders, the Sox are slated to have a lineup that looks something like this:

1. R. Castillo, CF
2. D. Pedroia, 2B
3. D. Ortiz, DH
4. H. Ramirez, LF
5. P. Sandoval, 3B
6. M. Napoli, 1B
7. X. Bogaerts, SS
8. C. Vazquez, C
9. M. Betts (or S. Victorino), RF

While that lineup looks incredibly dangerous, possibly the best in the American League, the projected starting rotation as of right now is... awful:

1. C. Buchholz
2. J. Kelly
3. R. De La Rosa
4. A. Webster
5. A. Ranaudo

No doubt the offense is excellent, but that rotation is putrid. The Red Sox need to make some moves for pitching. With team owner John Henry declaring that he is willing to go over the $189 million luxury tax threshold, the Sox are poised to make some moves for pitching help. Here are some of the arms they could target, with some more likely than others to don the red and white in 2015.

Target #1 - Jon Lester, Free Agent
What a steal it would be for the Red Sox to not only retain their former lefty-ace but to also have Cespedes in the lineup or as a trade piece? Unfortunately for the Sox, they are not even close to the only team targeting the big southpaw. The Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves are all clubs exploring the possibility of adding Lester.

Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino has said, “I learned a long time ago you can’t fall in love with your veterans,’’as well as, "..we prefer shorter to longer-term contracts, and a presumption against really long-term contracts." This could become an issue when trying to acquire Lester, who has reportedly been offered a contract worth over $135 and six years from the Cubs.

Despite Lucchino's comments from last off-season and the Cubs' lucrative long-term offer, the Red Sox remain one of the favorites to acquire Lester. Reports are that the club is willing to go higher than their current $110-120 million over six years offer and Lester insists that he values comfort over money. This leaves hope that he might choose the team and city he has been a part of since his first big-league appearance back in 2006 up until last summer.

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Target #2 - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
Unlike Lester, Hamels is not a free agent. To acquire him, the Sox would have to part with some of their top young talent. Despite the wide-spread belief that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr is looking for a king's ransom for his ace, ESPN reporter Jayson Stark believes the Phillies may be more flexible than many believe.

So what would it take to land Hamels? It would be shocking to see the Red Sox part with shortstop Xander Bogaerts, though I'm sure he would be the first player asked for by the Phillies. Talks wouldn't hinge on Bogaerts' availability, though. The Red Sox currently possess Cespedes, Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, and Allen Craig as possible outfield options. Talk about depth! Betts is the one that would most likely be a center-piece in a deal for Hamels. He would supply the Phillies with a top young talent and everyday player to begin their long-overdue rebuilding process.

It would take more than just Betts, though. Adding in prospects Henry Owens or Brian Johnson to a package that already contains Betts might seem like overkill to those with knowledge of the Red Sox farm system. However, don't rule out the possibility of the Sox adding in one or even two names such as Anthony Ranaudo, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, or Matt Barnes - all names the Sox have valued for a long time and have finally reached the big-league club.

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Target #3 - James Shields, Free Agent
Shields should be viewed by Sox fans as either an upgrade from John Lackey, or a downgrade from Jon Lester. That will depend on if the Sox view him as a number one or two starter. Shields was given a golden opportunity to inflate his free agent value during the most recent post-season. He entered the playoffs as the ace of the staff and had an excellent defense fielding behind him in Kansas City. Shields shattered this opportunity by finishing the post-season with a 6.12 ERA. He will be 33 years old by the start of the 2015 regular season.

Despite the poor playoffs and older age, the Californian had a strong 2014 regular season. Shields has also started at least 31 games each season since 2006. That kind of consistency is what the Red Sox have come accustomed to with Lester at the top of their rotation.

The market for Shields hasn't really taken form yet, as most pitchers are waiting for Lester to sign a contract and set the standard for the pitchers market this free agency. Shields will of course be expensive. I doubt he sees $20mil/per, however, and because of his age he may have to take a deal for four years instead of five - making him much more attractive to Larry Lucchino's Red Sox.

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Target #4 - Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
Casual baseball fans may have just muttered "who?" Iwakuma is 33 years old but only has three big league seasons under his belt. Here in Boston, most Seattle games aren't on until about 10-10:30PM, when most people are asleep while Iwakuma destroys opposing lineups. So who is this guy? Well he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2013, owns a career ERA of 3.07, and only costs $7 million in 2015. Sounds great! Sign me up!

Want another reason why Iwakuma works for the Red Sox? The Mariners are inquiring upon the availability of outfield power bats. Cespedes for Iwakuma! It makes so much sense!...

...except for the fact that, as I said, Iwakuma will be making $7 million and Cespedes will be making $10.5 million. Now that may not seem like a huge difference, but Seattle may be more content with keeping their co-ace and simply using that $3.5 million toward a free agent bat such as Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios, Melky Cabrera, or Torii Hunter. Regardless, as great as Iwakuma has been, I doubt the Sox would want to lean on a soon-to-be 34 year old who has absolutely no playoff experience, has been pitching in a huge ballpark in low-pressure situations, and only has three MLB seasons under his belt as their ace. If a move for Iwakuma was made, that would be great for the Sox, but more work at the top of their rotation would be necessary.

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Target #5 - Max Scherzer, Free Agent
Scherzer is widely-regarded as the top arm on the open-market this off-season. The 2013 Cy Young winner went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA last season. Scherzer turned down a six-year $144 million offer from the Detroit Tigers already, and the Scott Boras client looks to receive a contract in the same neighborhood as Clayton Kershaw's seven-year $215 million contract.

It is tough to believe the Red Sox would ever go so high on a contract for a free agent pitcher, especially one already over 30 years old. Who knows just how desperate the Red Sox may get, however. If they swing and miss on Lester and he signs elsewhere, the only other pitchers available that are Lester-caliber are Scherzer and other players through trade. It is also highly unlikely Scherzer receives such a lucrative contract. He will certainly get paid, but over $200 million would be very surprising given how poorly such huge contracts have panned out around the league.

If the Sox do decide to go the Scherzer route, they at least won't have to give up their draft pick. Since they finished in the bottom-third of the league, their first round draft choice is protected. That gives the Red Sox a slight advantage if they do decide to pursue Scherzer. In the end, I believe Scherzer will either head for the National League or sign with the New York Yankees.

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Other possible targets for the Red Sox include: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Chris Sale, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ervin Santana, and Francisco Liriano. All except Santana and Liriano would be difficult to acquire since it would have to be through trade. Sale would, most likely, cost an astronomical amount of high-level prospects. I wouldn't rule out anything, though, given the recent spontaneous signings the Red Sox have made and their willingness to pay to compete.

Top 10 Players in Major League Baseball

Major League Baseball has had some surprising, young talent explode onto the elite-playing-level scene this year such as Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu. Veteran All Stars such as Troy Tulowitzki and Joey Votto saw their seasons cut short by injury. Meanwhile, many studs like Mike Trout and Carlos Gomez just continue to rake at the plate and flash leather on the field. With many changing pieces, the "Top 10" of the MLB has certainly altered since the beginning of the season.

This list is not for fantasy baseball. Simply, it is the ten best players in baseball ranked in descending order. It is based on statistics as well as the good 'ole eye-test.

Without further ado...

10 - Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
Even though he is a rookie, it would be impossible to keep him off this list. In the first baseman's first season in the MLB, he's knocked in 100 runs and has a pretty good shot to lead all of baseball in homeruns, currently with 34. Abreu also has one of the highest batting averages in the league with a .317 spot. If he were in the National League, that would be the highest average in the league among players with at least 500 at-bats. In less than one major league season, Abreu became one of the most feared hitters in the sport.

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9 - Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Unlike Clayton Kershaw, Felix doesn't get to face a pitcher every nine batters. Yet, his ERA and WHIP are still miniscule. Seattle's stud ace has been phenomenal this season and is most likely going to win the AL Cy Young Award. What is even more amazing about him is that his last start gave him 30 starts this season. In a sport where more and more pitchers appear to get seriously injured every year, Felix has made at least 30 starts every season since he's become a full time starter (2006). He is the embodiment of consistency, even if the offense that supports him (other than Cano!) is anything but consistent.

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8 - Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Goldschmidt was on his way to having another fantastic season until a fracture to his left hand knocked him out for the remainder of the season. The D-Backs first baseman was outstanding in 2012 but really busted into stardom in 2013, finishing second in NL MVP voting. The Diamondbacks have been awful this year but Goldschmidt still managed 19 homers and 69 RBI in the 109 games he played. A little surprising was his 110 strikeouts, but it is unlikely that many pitchers threw him pitches to hit given the lack of production in the Diamondbacks lineup surrounding him. He's only 27 years old and will once again be a star in the league next year.

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7 - Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
One of the most overused lines from sports fans is "If he would only stay healthy!" That line has been used on "Tulo" far too often. The star shortstop is the best fielding shortstop behind Andrelton Simmons of Atlanta and by far the best hitting middle-infielder. Tulo hits for immense power and maintains a high batting average. He was well on his way to possibly his first MVP Award before he received season-ending hip surgery. Tulowitzki will be 30 at the start of next season, and a severe injury would certainly trim him from this list. Until that happens, he is still way too good to leave off. If he stayed healthy, he would be up there with Trout.

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6 - Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
Cano may not put up the flashy power numbers that guys like Jose Abreu, Troy Tulowitzki, and Paul Goldschmidt are capable of but there is something to be said for consistency. Cano has played in at least 159 games since 2007. All of those years except for one, he has hit over .300. This year, with a new gigantic contract and a much harder lineup and stadium to hit in, Cano is having one of his best seasons yet. His power numbers are down, which is to be expected, but his current OBP (On-Base%) would be the highest he has ever finished with. He is one of the most rare talents, an elite-hitting second baseman. His fielding is still excellent and his toughness might take the Mariners to the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Mike Trout was 10 years old in 2001. It would be about time.

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5 - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
McCutchen had only missed two games in 2014 until a fractured rib cost him 14 games. Over the course of those 14 games, the Pirates went 4-9 and their chances of making the playoffs began to dwindle. Since returning after those 14 games, the Pirates have gone 14-8. They now hold the second Wild Card spot in the National League, leading the Milwaukee Brewers by 2.0 games. There are few players, if any, more valuable to their team than 'Cutch. He's hitting .354 this September and has the second-highest WAR in baseball since 2012.

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4 - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Given Cabrera's "down year," (would be an amazing season for over 99% of the league), and his shortcomings in the field, there are those that would certainly rank him worse than fourth. I, however, am not one of those people. Cabrera has been bothered by a bone spur in his ankle (ouch) just about all season. Nevertheless, he has toughed out the injury to keep his team in contention and has still posted MVP-discussion numbers. He is one of only two players in baseball with both an average over .300 and at least 100 RBI. The fact that the reigning back-to-back AL MVP award winner can put up numbers so elite even with a bone spur in his ankle tells me that he is still one of the top four players in the league.

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3 - Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Before being horrifically hit in the face by a Mike Fiers pitch in the fifth inning of Thursday's contest against the Milwaukee Brewers, Stanton was baseball's RBI leader. Out of players with at least 500 at-bats this season, only two ranked higher than Stanton in OPS (On-Base% + Slugging%), Jose Abreu and Victor Martinez. Before the injury, Stanton had more home runs than Trout (he still does), a higher batting average, almost as many steals, and a significantly higher OPS. His fielding percentage was pretty average, but his athleticism and strength helped him get to balls that not many rightfielders get to and throw balls a lot farther than many other rightfielders throw.

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2 - Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
I could just link you to this, but he has seriously only improved since that was written. Kershaw is arguably having his best season ever and he is going to take home his third Cy Young Award in four years. He's got a good shot at winning 20 games, he's struck out over 200 batters, has an ERA under 1.70 and a WHIP under 0.85. Not only is he a great pitcher but he is one of the best athletes in professional sports. His fielding adds an infield glove that many teams don't have. Need I say more? This pitch though...

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1 - Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
This was obvious, right? For the sabermetrics folks, Trout is a full win higher than any other player in all of baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) this season according to FanGraphs.com. If you expand that time frame to Trout's first season, 2012, he is about seven wins higher than anyone else. If you prefer old school stats, Trout leads baseball in RBI. He is the only player with at least 30 homers and 14 steals. He is the only player with at least 100 runs and 100 RBI. With Giancarlo Stanton out for the season, Trout might finish as the only player with those figures. He also only has two errors in 1211 innings at the demanding centerfield position. And, oh yeah, the team he leads has the best record in baseball.

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Don't Give Up on Mookie Betts

This title should be a little odd to diehard baseball fans. Who is giving up on Mookie Betts? Sure, his batting average isn't what we hoped but he has played less than half an MLB season. You cannot honestly judge a player based off such a small sample size.

Now I would understand why Red Sox fans would be sensitive when hearing "but it's a small sample size!" Similar lines were used on the team's other rookie centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., going into this season. Last year 'JBJ' batted for a horrendous .189 average. Given that the .189 came from only 95 at bats and that JBJ had such a successful Spring Training, fans were eager to give him a second chance in 2014. What has Bradley Jr. done with this second chance? Hit .216 in 348 at bats. Awful.

Mookie Betts isn't Jackie Bradley Jr., though, and Red Sox fans need to understand that. JBJ has played 89 career games in AAA and hit .268. Though only playing 45 games this year, even less before his promotion to Boston (he has since been sent back down and recalled again), Betts hit .335 in AAA. He destroyed opposing pitching in Pawtucket. Now this isn't to say Bradley Jr. wasn't successful in the minors at the plate. He put up solid overall numbers. Mookie Betts' numbers were still significantly better.

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Here are the 162 game averages for five highly regarded 2014 rookies. The categories listed are: runs/ home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases/batting average/on-base percentage(OBP)/slugging percentage (SLG%).

Player A: 68 / 4 / 43 / 11 /.210 / .286 / .300

Player B: 80 / 27 / 91 / 2 / .186 / .296 / .372

Player C: 74 / 15 / 22 / 29 / .254 / .346 / .394

Player D: 104 / 15 / 76 / 30 / .241 / .308 / .349

Player E: 61 / 12 / 45 / 28 / .234 / .275 / .354

Can you guess which one Betts is?

Betts is the one with the highest OBP and SLG%, Player C. Who are the others? Player A is Bradley Jr. Yes, the player with the worst numbers. Player B is the power hitting first baseman for the Houston Astros, Jon Singleton. D is the Pirates coveted prospect Gregory Polanco, who was recently demoted back to Triple A. Finally, Player E is Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong.

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Of course, 162 game averages are flawed statistics. For example, Betts' projected RBI total over 162 games is 22. A player with 15 home runs and a .394 SLG% would certainly finish with more than 22 RBI. Still, these stats are pretty straightforward and Betts' projections are not bad, especially when compared to other top prospects around the game.

None of those stat-lines really jump off the page at anyone. The averages are all poor and for top prospects none of the stat-lines say "future superstar." Still, by providing such examples it should be noted that not all prospects are Mike Trout or Ryan Braun. They don't make the leap from the minors to the majors as if nothing changed. With recent rookies like Jose Fernandez and Trout taking the league by storm, a common misconception is that rookies should immediately make a great impact if they are going to be any good in the future. It is an unfair expectation and one that puts a lot of pressure on players in their low-20s adjusting to the biggest stage of their careers.

Red Sox fans have seen their team go from last, to first, to last in three years. It is not an easy roller coaster to stomach, given the team's current state. None of the rookie starting pitchers have been exceptional and all of the hitters have been disappointing (except for Brock Holt!). Still, it is much too early to give up on Betts. He has not had a fair-enough shake to be judged. The team around him has been bad and he hasn't even logged 100 Major League at bats yet. While it is easy to get caught up in the "Giancarlo Stanton to Boston" nonsense as well as how disappointing the prospects have been, be happy with what your team has right now. His role on the team is currently up-in-the-air, with three former All Star outfielders and a 27 year old Cuban phenom in front of him. So, there is the real possibility he is moved. Regardless of whether he is traded or not, Betts will be a solid player somewhere. Book it.

Who is Rusney Castillo and Why Do the Red Sox Want Him?

"ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that the bidding for Castillo could cost $50-60MM over five years. Stark lists five of the six usual suspects as finalists, noting that the Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Phillies and Yankees remain in the mix for Castillo."

Who? What!? Red Sox!?!?

Rusney Castillo recently defected from Cuba to play Major League Baseball in the United States. Castillo is a 27 year old outfielder who some would regard as a five-tool player. He is currently weighing his options from several big market clubs and sources believe his decision is coming soon.

The Red Sox have David Ortiz at designated hitter, Mike Napoli at first base, and an outfield that has three former (one current) All Stars as well as two highly-rated outfield prospects (Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts). With Ortiz and Napoli at DH and 1B, Allen Craig must play the outfield. Who gets benched then? Given the struggles of almost all Red Sox rookies at the plate, it would be logical to assume Bradley Jr. and Betts would start the season in the minor leagues or on the bench. Of course, there is also the possibility that one of them could get traded this off-season, especially if the Red Sox sign Castillo. That would leave the team with Craig in left, Shane Victorino in center, and Yoenis Cespedes in right. Where does that leave room for Castillo, even with the rookies out of the way? That I cannot answer. Given the ample time missed by Victorino and Craig this season due to injuries, however, Castillo may have an opening sooner rather than later.

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Castillo can help the Red Sox with something they haven't received from their outfield this season: offense. In over 1,100 at bats, Castillo only hit 42 home runs in Cuban ball. However, his career batting average of .315 and on-base percentage of .380 would be more than welcomed by the Sox. With his above-average speed (68 steals in 96 attempts), Castillo could potentially provide the club with a lead-off punch that they have been missing since Jacoby Ellsbury's departure in free agency.

Another reason why the Red Sox should sign Castillo? Yoenis Cespedes. Some Red Sox fans (many who just simply had a man-crush on Jon Lester) were upset about the team's acquisition of Cespedes because he is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, giving the team only about a year-and-a-half of control. Cespedes, also a native Cuban and a former teammate of Castillo, likened Castillo to Los Angeles Dodgers stud (and yes, a fellow Cuban) Yasiel Puig: “If he’s not a five-tool player, he’s at least a four-tool player. He’s very comparable to [Yasiel] Puig. Obviously a different height and size, but very similar qualities.” A powerful right-handed hitter like Cespedes would certainly love to play at Fenway Park beyond 2015. Adding a player who is not only also a native Cuban but could potentially be an excellent MLB player just adds more incentive for Cespedes to remain with the Sox. 

Here are some highlights of Castillo provided by BaseballAmerica: 

Click Here. Blogger wouldn't let me embed it, sorry!

Obviously these highlights are a tiny sample of selected clips. With that said, I was able to find some aspects of his play that I find particularly appeasing. As noted, he is not exactly a power hitter. Still, it was nice to see him take a high pitch to the opposite field at 2:28 in the video. For him to take a pitch to the opposite field almost 400 feet for the home run is very impressive. In almost 450 major league at bats now, Jackie Bradley Jr. has four home runs. None of them were to the opposite field. 

The other part of Castillo's game that I thought would fit in nicely with any MLB club is his bunting. Players that are fast are fairly common. Players that successfully use that speed to their advantage are less-common. Players that are fast and can bunt for base-hits are just flat-out rare. It is something that I wished Jacoby Ellsbury would have done more (I don't mean to bring his name up twice in this article - in no way, shape, or form do I expect Castillo to be Ellsbury). The bunt that Castillo lays down at 1:15 is gorgeous. All season, especially with Victorino on the DL, fans have harped on the Red Sox for a true lead-off hitter. While Brock Holt has done admirably, Castillo could potentially be incredible atop a lineup that includes Pedroia, Ortiz, and Cespedes. 

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To those that think, "Because of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox will stay away from international players. That's why they didn't sign Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka!" Please understand that not only was "Dice-K" signed under a different general manager than Ben Cherington, but the Red Sox didn't sign Abreu (despite being rumored to be interested) because Abreu signed with the Chicago White Sox in late October. What were the Red Sox doing in late October? Oh, right, winning the World Series. Signing a power-hitting first baseman entering his prime in the middle of the World Series may have sent some bad vibes to the locker room, especially to Mike Napoli who was a soon-to-be free agent. As for Tanaka? The Red Sox entered the 2014 season with one of the deepest pitching staffs on paper. At the time, there was no reason to throw a lot of money Tanaka's way. 

I am confident that wherever Rusney Castillo ends up, he will be a solid player. As Red Sox fans have noticed first-hand this year, you can never have enough solid outfielders. Even if it means saying good-bye to one of the team's top prospects to make room, adding Castillo to the mix in Boston would be a great addition.

Fun Facts about Clayton Kershaw's 2014 Season

Clayton Kershaw, ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers, is having a magical season... again. He is well on his way to his third National League Cy Young Award in four seasons. The southpaw is nails and here are some interesting facts through his first 20 starts of 2014 that may (most likely not) surprise you:

1. Jon Lester and Sonny Gray, co-aces of the Oakland Athletics, are having fantastic seasons. Their combined WAR is 5.49. Kershaw's is 5.92! (What is WAR? Google.)

2. In 141.1 innings pitched (IP), Kershaw has 174 strikeouts (Ks). In 169 IP, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has 138 Ks.

3. There have been 60 complete games (CG) in the MLB so far this season. Kershaw leads the MLB with six CGs.

4. Six complete games is as many as Yu Darvish, Chris Sale, and David Price have combined.

5. Kershaw has thrown 18 quality starts (QS = at least 6 IP and only 3 ER surrendered or less) in 20 tries. That .9 QS% is the highest mark in the majors out of all pitchers with at least three starts.

6. Kershaw has thrown at least 7 IP in 15 out of 20 starts this season.

7. His last non-quality start was June 8.

8. The last time he threw less than 7 IP in a start was June 8.

9. Since you are obviously wondering, he won his start on June 8 against the Rockies, who at the time had the best offense in baseball, throwing 5 scoreless innings and striking out 9.

10. His ERA that month was 0.82. No, really, 0.82.

11. After a CG, 11 K performance, Kershaw suffered his third loss of the season on August 16.

12. ... his last loss was May 28th.

13. Out of pitchers with at least 20 starts in 2014, Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg is ranked 18th with a 1.21 WHIP (Walks+Hits per IP). Kershaw is ranked first with a 0.84 WHIP. A 0.37 (that's a lot for this statistic!) difference.

14. Kershaw has one thing in common with mortals: he loves Fridays. Kershaw's ERA in three Friday starts is 0.43.

15. ...yes he won all three of those starts.

16. Through 141.1 IP so far this season, Kershaw has only been on the losing side of the scoreboard for 24.0 of those innings.

17. His ERA while trailing is 2.63.

18. His ERA while the score is tied is 2.59.

19. His ERA when the team is ahead, which has been for 79.2 IP, is 1.24. When he has the lead, the game is basically over.

20. Through those 79.2 IP, Kershaw has 94 strikeouts.

21. Kershaw has never loaded the bases this season... HE HAS NEVER LOADED THE BASES THIS SEASON!

22. Kershaw's ERA in the 5th inning of games this season is 0.00.

23. His ERA in the 8th inning of games this season is also 0.00. (9 IP)

24. Kershaw has not intentionally walked anyone this season. Fearless.

25. He is on pace to lead all qualifying National League starters in ERA for the 4th straight season.

26. ...he is also on pace to lead all qualifying National League starters in WHIP for the 4th straight season.

27. Wainwright's home ERA is 3.64. Strasburg's road ERA is 4.77. Giants ace Madison Bumgarner's home ERA is 5.17. Braves ace Julio Teheran's road ERA is 4.27. Kershaw's ERA is under 2.00 both at home and on the road. He doesn't care where he's pitching.

28. Kershaw's ERA through his first 75 pitches into a game is 1.91.

29. His ERA through pitches 76 on is even better - 1.73. He gets better as the game goes on, when his team needs him the most. He is superhuman.

30. When Kershaw has two outs in an inning, his ERA is 1.58. The inning is essentially over, similar to this list.

If anyone ever tries to tell you that Clayton Kershaw is not the best pitcher in baseball, please understand that they are lying to you. Yes, I am aware of his lackluster postseason numbers. Understand, though, that 15.1 of his 38.1 postseason IP came in 2008 and 2009, when he was 20 and 21 years old. If you remove those innings from his postseason numbers, his postseason ERA is a much more respectable 3.13. That number would be under 1.00 if it weren't for two bad innings against the Cardinals last October.

The man is unreal.

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Three Reasons Why Trading Jon Lester Was a Smart Decision

Jon Lester never really came close to winning a Cy Young in Boston and was only an All Star three times since his rookie year in 2006. He never had a 20-win season nor did he ever finish a season with an ERA under 3.25. Admittedly part of the embarrassing "chicken and beer" fiasco, Lester was a large reason for the 2011 team's collapse when, in September, he went 1-3 with an ERA of 5.40. The next season in 2012, Lester was awful, finishing with an ERA of 4.82.

Even in 2013, a year in which Lester was a huge reason as to why the Red Sox won the World Series, he had an ERA over 4.50 in the first half. That means from September 2011 to July 2013 Jon Lester was an inconsistent (at best) below-average starter. During this time period, from September 2011 to the All Star Break in 2013, Lester's ERA was 4.77 through 71 starts in that time frame.

That is not a small sample size. That is almost two full years! Consider that this was during his ages 27-28-29 seasons and it makes you wonder, at least a little bit, how good he actually is. Of course, if you want to look at what he's done lately, he's been outstanding. To say he's been "outstanding" might actually be an understatement. Lester was absolute nails in the second-half of 2013 and in the playoffs right through winning the World Series. So far this season he has put up a career best 2.44 ERA and is coming off a complete game shutout against Minnesota in his last outing. There is no denying that Lester, right now, is a great pitcher.

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Neither is there any denying that he served Boston well. Despite the curious aforementioned numbers from late 2011 to the All Star Break of 2013, Lester was one of the Red Sox's best players. He's always been up front with the media, holds himself accountable, and usually pitches great when the Red Sox need him most. His two World Series rings and 2.11 ERA in the playoffs speak for themselves. Why is it then, that trading him was such a great idea? Other than the obvious fact that the Red Sox are going nowhere in 2014 and that Lester is a free agent at the end of it?

1 - Maybe, just maybe, there is that slim chance, that he might, possibly, come back.
Lester has been adamant since the talk of his impending free agency began that he wanted to remain with the Red Sox. Sure, he rejected the team's offer of 4 years at $70 million even after saying he would take a hometown discount. Can you blame him, though? Homer Bailey, a far inferior pitcher to Lester with a career ERA over 4.00, recently signed a six year $105 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds may be stupid, but Jon Lester isn't. If Bailey can sign a contract like that, surely Lester can sign a greater one even with a discount included. While Red Sox President Larry Lucchino suggested it was an "opening offer," hinting that the team would go higher than the 4 years/$70 million, it remains to be seen just how high the Red Sox will bid for their former ace in this off-season's free agency. Of course, there is also this: click.

2 - The Red Sox neeeeeeeed offensive production, especially from the outfield.
So far this season, the Red Sox rank last in home runs from left fielders and tied for third-to-last in home runs from center fielders and right fielders. Uh, that's terrible. The additions of Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig (from the John Lackey trade), two former All Stars, do leave question marks in the Sox's outfield. Most likely, one of Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. will be dealt this off-season. No matter what the Red Sox outfield looks like at the beginning of next season, however, it will be an upgrade from this year's. Adding an All Star, right-handed power bat to the outfield was just what the doctor ordered for the Sox. All Red Sox fans will miss Jonny Gomes. Gomes was a huge part of the 2013 World Series Championship. Like Lester, though, Gomes will be a free agent at the end of this season and all he was really doing was blocking the rookies from playing time.

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3 - Henry Owens
Casual Red Sox fans have probably all heard about the team's pitching prospects but don't know much about them. Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Brandon Workman have now spent ample time with the big league club but who are Henry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, and Matt Barnes? For Pawtucket this year, Ranaudo is 13-4 with a 2.58 ERA. He beat the Yankees in his MLB debut. Matt Barnes is a 6'4 right handed starter who, despite struggling a bit this season, projects to be a solid major league arm. He was ranked as the Red Sox's ninth-best prospect this season by Baseball America. The cream of the crop, however, is Henry Owens. Owens is currently the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's farm system. He has one of the most elite change-ups in all of the minor leagues and projects as a top of the rotation starter. In his Triple A debut last Monday, Owens tossed 6.2 innings. He finished with nine strikeouts, zero runs allowed, and only two hits and three walks surrendered.

It would not be fair to expect one of these six pitchers or any of the other pitchers on the current roster to replace what Jon Lester gave the team. However, the Red Sox have assembled a group of young arms that all have the potential to step in and make an impact. Lester could return, the team could trade for Cole Hamels, or they could sign Max Scherzer or James Shields in free agency. Who knows what they will do? The one thing for sure, however, is that this young collection of pitchers puts the future of the team's rotation in a positive light.

Jon Lester was great for the Red Sox. Unless he re-signs with the team, it is time to move on from him. There are too many reasons why Red Sox fans should be ecstatic for the off-season and the start of the 2015 season. It hurts that Lester is gone, but there is still a team to cheer for.

Fantasy All Star Team Starting Lineup

In honor of the All Star Game, let us acknowledge fantasy's all stars so far this season. Rather than simply select the players with the best numbers so far, average draft position (ADP per ESPN) will also be accounted for. It would be a fruitless exercise to simply acknowledge that players like Miguel Cabrera and Clayton Kershaw are having seasons like they usually do. Fantasy owners are of course thankful for their contributions. One could argue, however, that more value can be placed on players such as Jose Abreu and Johnny Cueto since they are putting up very similar numbers as Cabrera and Kershaw but were drafted much later.

Also, please note that I do cite ESPN's Player Rater quite often. When I do, it is merely to help reinforce a point. It is hardly the basis for my argument and I would actually encourage most to not put too much faith into the Player Rater. While it can be a useful tool, it is flawed. With that said, it does provide a decent ranking of how players have done so far this season (most of the time).

So without further ado, your 2014 Fantasy Baseball All Star Starting Lineup:
  
Catcher - Devin Mesoraco, CIN
Mesoraco went un-drafted in most standard leagues. Heading into the All Star Break (ASB), he's hitting over .300 with 16 home runs. Those 16 dingers lead all catchers (tied with Evan Gattis) and his 45 RBI are second to only Arizona's Miguel Montero. Mesoraco has been a huge bright spot for the Reds, who have missed the usual MVP type production from first baseman Joey Votto.

First Base - Jose Abreu, CWS
Abreu's ADP on ESPN was 135.8... 135.8! His 29 homers mark the highest total in the MLB and after his 3 for 5 performance on Sunday, he's risen his average to .292. With the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka due for an extended stay on the disabled list, Abreu is virtually a lock for the American League's Rookie of the Year Award. For a player who went in the 14th round in most standard leagues, Abreu is arguably the fantasy MVP so far.
  
Second Base - Dee Gordon, LAD
Gordon's 43 steals are tops in the major leagues heading into the ASB. For a player with an ADP of 222.3, he's had tremendous value. Gordon has also put up a .293 BA with over 50 runs scored. He's been a fantasy monster and if Kemp, Gonzalez, and Ramirez can have more substantial numbers in the second-half, which they're all capable of, Gordon's counting stats will look even better come year's end.

Third Base - Todd Frazier, CIN
Todd Frazier has taken the MLB by storm this season. The 28 year old is hitting .290 with 19 homers. He also leads all third basemen with 14 steals. His batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage are all well above his career averages, which suggests a possible regression in the second-half. However, there is no doubting the incredible production Frazier has given and he should be a fun participant to watch in the Home Run Derby.

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Shortstop - Troy Tulowitzki, COL
Sure, "Tulo's" ADP (15.1) was significantly higher than all of the previous players listed, but he has simply been too good to leave off. Tulowitzki's 21 home runs lead all shortstops, as does his 71 runs, 106 hits, 39 extra base hits (XBH), and .344 BA. Getting the picture? Tulowitzki is a fantasy god and if he can avoid the disabled list in the second-half his final numbers will be breathtaking.

Outfield - Nelson Cruz, BAL; Giancarlo Stanton, MIA; Michael Brantley, CLE
I know, I know. Mike Trout is not here. Neither is Pittsburgh's beast Andrew McCutchen. Trout and McCutchen have been nothing less than fantastic. While that's true, these three players have provided just about the same value for a much cheaper draft pick. Cruz has a respectable .285 batting average. His 28 homers and 74 RBI lead all outfielders. Though Stanton has only 1 hit in his last 19 at bats, he still has an average of .295. His ADP was 32.7 yet he is the 10th overall player on ESPN's Player Rater. Brantley, who was still available in most drafts by the 22nd round!! is the fourth overall batter on the Player Rater and is hitting a smoking .322 with double-digit homers and steals. These three players make up my (very debatable) fantasy all star outfield.

Designated Hitter - Charlie Blackmon, COL
ESPN lists Blackmon's ADP as 260. That is the number assigned to all players that had an ADP outside the 25 rounds of standard leagues. Essentially, Blackmon was pretty much drafted no where. Those who were able to pick him up in free agency, though, are enjoying the ride. Blackmon is slashing .306/53/14/51/17 for Colorado (that's BA / R / HR / RBI / SB). He has been an unbelievable, all around, offensive threat. He has put up better numbers than players such as Yasiel Puig and Adrian Beltre. Blackmon has been a fantasy stud.

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Starting Pitcher - Johnny Cueto, CIN
Cueto, the third overall pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater, may have been the National League's starting pitcher on Tuesday had he not started Sunday's game for the Reds. Not bad for a pitcher who had an ADP of 182.4. He has miniscule ratios with a 2.13 ERA and 0.89 WHIP to go along with 141 punch outs. Kershaw, Hernandez, Darvish, and Wainwright have all been fantastic. Cueto is right up there with them. Consider each of those players' ADPs and it is no wonder why Cueto is the fantasy all star team's starter.

Closer - Francisco Rodriguez, MIL
For most of the Spring, most believed that Jim Henderson was going to be Milwaukee's closer. For that reason, "K-Rod" went un-drafted in most standard leagues. That didn't stop K-Rod from not only taking the 9th inning for the Brew Crew but from being ranked the #1 closer on ESPN's Player Rater heading into the ASB. Yes, most would rather have an Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel type closer going forward. But given where they were drafted, K-Rod was quite easily the best value out of all closers. He has a K/9 over ten, is tied for second in all of baseball in saves, and has a WHIP under 1.00. He is also in the top ten out of current closers in strikeouts. For those lucky enough to pick up Rodriguez back in April, they are reaping the benefits.

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Revisiting the February 23rd Mock Draft

On February 23, I posted my first mock draft of the season. It was titled, "Mock Draft 1.0" because I thought I would do more than one. Unfortunately, I was unable to complete another mock. With the one mock on record, let's analyze and see how I did as the MLB enters it's All Star break.

This was the team drafted:

C - E. Gattis

1B - E. Encarnacion

2B - M. Carpenter

3B - M. Cabrera

SS - J. Reyes

2B/SS - J. Gyorko
1B/3B - M. Machado
OF - G. Stanton
OF - J. Bautista
OF - J. Hamilton
OF - A. Gordon
OF - M. Cuddyer
UTIL - X. Bogaerts

Starting Pitchers: M. Cain, G. Gonzalez, M. Wacha, J. Lester, H. Kuroda, P. Corbin, Y. Gallardo, C. Tillman

Relief Pitchers: A. Reed, C. Janssen, F. Rodney

Bench: C. Hart

The first thing that comes to mind is players I would have dropped by now.  Without a doubt, Gyorko, Corbin, Tillman, and Hart would be released. Given that this was a 10 team draft, I am perfectly fine with losing my projected 6th and 8th starters (Corbin and Tillman) because they would have been easy to replace. Players like Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards, and Alfredo Simon have been unbelievable this year and none of them were drafted by another team in the mock. Therefore, it is safe to assume I would have added at least one of them, if not more. I cannot give myself credit for owning them, since clearly I did not draft them in this mock. Regardless, replacing starting pitchers in 10 team leagues is not as hard as some would think. Gyorko and Hart have both struggled and spent time on the disabled list (DL). Dropping the two of them would be an easy decision.

Given that Gattis, Encarnacion, and Wacha are all on the DL, I highly doubt Cuddyer would have been held on to. 

Keeping these injured players in mind, there are still plenty of positives with this roster. This team has seven All Stars. Gattis, Encarnacion, Stanton, Cabrera and Bautista combine for 94 home runs so far this season, which is an average of about 19 per player. 

As for speed, this team would be doing about as I expected. Not much speed. Overall, though, this offense would have been pretty darn good. Plenty of pop, pretty good average, and lots of runs.

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The pitching has serious issues. While there are some positives, such as Jon Lester's brilliance so far this season (ranked as the 10th SP on ESPN's Player Rater), there are far more negatives. Gonzalez, Cain, and Gallardo have been inconsistent and, as previously mentioned, Michael Wacha is on the DL. Kuroda's ERA is north of 4.00 and the other two starters would have been dropped. Clearly, this team would struggle with starting pitching. Of course there are exceptions, and this isn't to sugarcoat the lackluster pitching, but in a 10 team league (head-to-head), you can live with sub-par pitching so long as your hitting is great. I do believe this team has stellar offense.

Finally, the closers have all found success. While Reed has certainly been unspectacular, he has accumulated 21 saves on a team that only has 40 wins. Casey Janssen has been arguably untouchable since returning from the disabled list for Toronto, with an ERA of 1.29 and WHIP under 1.00. Rodney is a lot closer to Janssen than Reed, with 27 saves and an ERA under 2.00. The three closers have combined for 61 saves, and would have been perfectly suitable for this team. 

Given the pitching troubles, all the DL stints, and the prolonged slumps of players such as Xander Bogaerts and Jose Reyes throughout the first half, I don't think this team would be doing so well to this point. However, I would expect a turn around in the second-half given the team's excellent power-offense and the recent success from starters Gio Gonzalez and Matt Cain.

Did Coldplay Sing About the Future Red Sox?

Back in 2005 when Coldplay came out with "Fix You," who knew the opening lines of the song were telling the future of the 2014 Red Sox?

When you try your best but you don't succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can't sleep
Stuck in reverse

When the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can't replace
When you love someone but it goes to waste
Could it be worse?

The first half is pretty self-explanatory, except maybe the second line. Allow me to explain it. What the Red Sox wanted ("When you get what you want but not what you need") is most surely about Stephen Drew. The Red Sox shortstop never plays against lefties (which is probably for the better), and has 11 hits in 78 at bats...

... no I'm serious. Eleven hits in seventy-eight at bats. 

Not only did the signing of Drew give the team another player who can't hit his way out of a paper bag and not only did it move the future of the franchise to a different position, but it cost them $10 million. Oh and that "future of the franchise," Xander Bogaerts, hit .296 this season while playing shortstop. As a third baseman, where Drew moved him to, he's hitting .139. No, that is not a typo. 

So they got what they wanted. They wanted the legendary Stephen Drew. What did they need, though? An outfield. Of course, that is not news to anyone. Wow Pete, the Red Sox need an outfield? Good call. Real original argument. Take what everyone is saying about the Red Sox and just tie it to some Coldplay lyrics. 

Shut it. While yes, it is obvious the Red Sox need a better outfield, it is still fair to question what Ben Cherington was thinking. The platoon in left worked almost too perfectly last season as did the health of Shane Victorino. However, when your team's salary for the 2014 season is $154,512,396... can't you afford an everyday, solid left fielder? How has the platoon worked this season? 

Victorino holds a spot in the heart of every Red Sox fan (as does Nava and Gomes) after last post-season's heroics. He's always been a solid player, a smile in the dugout, and a hard-nosed fielder. Even with how well he performed last season, didn't the Red Sox need some kind of insurance plan? The Sox right fielder missed time last season and is 33-years old with lots of wear and tear on his small frame. OK, so maybe there was no need to go out and trade away the farm system for Michael Cuddyer or Domonic Brown but wouldn't some insurance be nice? The only "back up" (who actually landed the starting gig) the Sox signed for the outfield was Grady Sizemore and everyone knows about the risks that he came with. So the outfield was really three platoon players (if you include Carp), a rookie, a guy who hadn't played in years, and a fragile right fielder on the decline. Well thank the baseball gods that Betts and Holt moved to the outfield.

What hurts the most about it for Sox fans is that Nelson Cruz, who is going to be starting in the All Star Game and leads the MLB with 27 homers and 71 RBI, signed for one year at $8 million. Yeah, the guy that just annihilated the Sox over the weekend. No one knew the PED using 34-year old with bad hamstrings was going to tear it up this insanely but how were the Sox not in on him with such a slim outfield?  Even Curtis Granderson, who recently hit .300 in June with 5 home runs, signed with the New York Mets for four years, $60 million. While that is a lot of money to give a 33-year old, wouldn't he have been worth a shot for a team coming off a World Series title with no highly rated outfield prospects? (Just so you know, Mookie Betts was a second baseman until this season). 

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When you lose something you can't replace. You guessed it, this line is about Jacoby Ellsbury. Should the Red Sox have signed Ellsbury for the seven-year, $153 million contract it cost the Yankees? Maybe not. Is he replaceable, though? Definitely not. You can't just replace what Ellsbury brought to the table with a single player. That would be unfair to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Grady Sizemore. Neither Cruz nor Granderson would have replaced Ellsbury, either. He simply did too much for the team. The problem is, however, the Red Sox did not do enough in trying to make up for the loss.

Who did the Red Sox love but let go to waste? Certainly not Ellsbury, as he helped bring two titles to Boston. I would hardly call that a waste. This line could be interpreted in many different ways. I take it as a possible prediction on Sox closer Koji Uehara. All of Boston loves Koji. High Five City has lit up opposing teams and recorded 39 saves since given the closers role last season. The problem is that Koji is a free agent at the end of the season. At 39 years old (he will be 40 after the first week of next season), he may choose to retire. If in fact the Red Sox are out of contention this season, trading Koji is a must. There are plenty of playoff contenders (Tigers, Giants, Angels, etc.) who have had serious bullpen issues this year. Koji is a bonafide, shutdown closer who some teams may pay a king's ransom for. The Red Sox need to take advantage of this if they do not catch fire these next few weeks before the trade deadline. Otherwise, he could end up as someone they loved but let go to waste. Thanks, Coldplay. 

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 And finally there's the question we've been asking just about all season: "Could it be worse?" In short, yes, it could be way worse. It's tough to think it could be worse after getting swept at home by the lowly Cubs but even through all the losses and frustrations this season, the Red Sox have a loaded farm system, a lot of money to spend, and hey - they might still be in this thing. I'm of course keeping the faith. But even I'll admit, it's been tough to.

Stream of the Week: Kevin Gausman and Matt Shoemaker

I apologize for not writing a "Stream of the Week" last week! Job searching the first month after college graduation isn't exactly a stress free time period. Even still, baseball stops for no man, mortal or otherwise. To make up for last week, I'll provide two choices for this week (and they both pitch on different days, in case you only have one spot to stream). To jog your memory, two weeks ago the selection was Marcus Stroman against the Minnesota Twins. He was hardly untouchable, but he did give owners a quality start, walked none, and struck out four. We'll call that a fantasy-win, which brings the Pete Talking Sports "Stream of the Week" record to 3-1. Let's hope I can bring that record to 5-1 with these two young arms.

Going into the 2014 season, Baseball Prospectus had Kevin Gausman as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball, Baseball America had him 20th. So far, those rankings have been vindicated by the rookie's efforts. Fantasy owners have been burned by some Baltimore Orioles' pitching prospects in the past. Brian Matusz and Zach Britton were both terribly unsuccessful as starters. Though admittedly, Britton has looked strong in his new found closers role with the club. For those who play in deep dynasty leagues, many were burned by Dylan Bundy's Tommy John surgery. Kevin Gausman, however, is not Britton, Matusz or Bundy. He is healthy, starting, and pitching well. Do not let the often disappointing Orioles' pitching cloud your judgment of Gausman.

Through four starts this season, Gausman is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's logged 16 K's in 23 innings pitched. No team in the American League has scored more runs than the Oakland A's or Toronto Blue Jays, yet Gausman managed to beat both of them. He's lived up to some tough challenges so far this season and if Baltimore wants to continue the success they've had they'll need all the pitching they can get. Gausman is slotted to face the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, a team he just blanked through 6 frames of 5 hit ball in his last start. Does it worry me that now the Rays' lineup has seen his pitches a few times through the order? Possibly a little. I certainly do not expect another zero earned run performance, but another quality start and/or a win is definitely within the realm of possibilities. The game is at home in Baltimore and opposing Gausman is a lineup that is dead-last in the American League in runs scored this season. Gausman is currently owned in 7.2% of ESPN standard leagues.

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Rookie Matt Shoemaker of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is another strong option to start this week. Shoemaker is scheduled to pitch Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. He has dominated recently. In his last two starts, he's tossed 15.2 frames, striking out 16 and only yielding 3 earned runs. He won both contests. The Angels have been hot, winning their last three games. Whereas the offensively challenged Royals have lost their last four.

While it is true that the Royals have the fifth-best team batting average in Major League Baseball, they are in the bottom-half in runs scored and are tied with the Cardinals for the least amount of home runs. Kansas City isn't a scary offense for Shoemaker to face and owners should add and deploy him with confidence. Shoemaker is owned in 5.5% of ESPN standard leagues.

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Why you shouldn't listen to me: Similar to the last entry, the only reason to be hesitant with either of these pitchers is that they are rookies. All pitchers, especially rookies, hit slumps and give a bad start every now and then. The best attempt at avoiding these instances is to pick and choose when you start them. Opposite the Rays and Royals, you should feel confident with either of these players. Best of luck, whether you go with my suggestions or not!