Sunday, July 13, 2014

Fantasy All Star Team Starting Lineup

In honor of the All Star Game, let us acknowledge fantasy's all stars so far this season. Rather than simply select the players with the best numbers so far, average draft position (ADP per ESPN) will also be accounted for. It would be a fruitless exercise to simply acknowledge that players like Miguel Cabrera and Clayton Kershaw are having seasons like they usually do. Fantasy owners are of course thankful for their contributions. One could argue, however, that more value can be placed on players such as Jose Abreu and Johnny Cueto since they are putting up very similar numbers as Cabrera and Kershaw but were drafted much later.

Also, please note that I do cite ESPN's Player Rater quite often. When I do, it is merely to help reinforce a point. It is hardly the basis for my argument and I would actually encourage most to not put too much faith into the Player Rater. While it can be a useful tool, it is flawed. With that said, it does provide a decent ranking of how players have done so far this season (most of the time).

So without further ado, your 2014 Fantasy Baseball All Star Starting Lineup:
  
Catcher - Devin Mesoraco, CIN
Mesoraco went un-drafted in most standard leagues. Heading into the All Star Break (ASB), he's hitting over .300 with 16 home runs. Those 16 dingers lead all catchers (tied with Evan Gattis) and his 45 RBI are second to only Arizona's Miguel Montero. Mesoraco has been a huge bright spot for the Reds, who have missed the usual MVP type production from first baseman Joey Votto.

First Base - Jose Abreu, CWS
Abreu's ADP on ESPN was 135.8... 135.8! His 29 homers mark the highest total in the MLB and after his 3 for 5 performance on Sunday, he's risen his average to .292. With the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka due for an extended stay on the disabled list, Abreu is virtually a lock for the American League's Rookie of the Year Award. For a player who went in the 14th round in most standard leagues, Abreu is arguably the fantasy MVP so far.
  
Second Base - Dee Gordon, LAD
Gordon's 43 steals are tops in the major leagues heading into the ASB. For a player with an ADP of 222.3, he's had tremendous value. Gordon has also put up a .293 BA with over 50 runs scored. He's been a fantasy monster and if Kemp, Gonzalez, and Ramirez can have more substantial numbers in the second-half, which they're all capable of, Gordon's counting stats will look even better come year's end.

Third Base - Todd Frazier, CIN
Todd Frazier has taken the MLB by storm this season. The 28 year old is hitting .290 with 19 homers. He also leads all third basemen with 14 steals. His batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage are all well above his career averages, which suggests a possible regression in the second-half. However, there is no doubting the incredible production Frazier has given and he should be a fun participant to watch in the Home Run Derby.

http://sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/todd-frazier.jpg
http://sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/todd-frazier.jpg
Shortstop - Troy Tulowitzki, COL
Sure, "Tulo's" ADP (15.1) was significantly higher than all of the previous players listed, but he has simply been too good to leave off. Tulowitzki's 21 home runs lead all shortstops, as does his 71 runs, 106 hits, 39 extra base hits (XBH), and .344 BA. Getting the picture? Tulowitzki is a fantasy god and if he can avoid the disabled list in the second-half his final numbers will be breathtaking.

Outfield - Nelson Cruz, BAL; Giancarlo Stanton, MIA; Michael Brantley, CLE
I know, I know. Mike Trout is not here. Neither is Pittsburgh's beast Andrew McCutchen. Trout and McCutchen have been nothing less than fantastic. While that's true, these three players have provided just about the same value for a much cheaper draft pick. Cruz has a respectable .285 batting average. His 28 homers and 74 RBI lead all outfielders. Though Stanton has only 1 hit in his last 19 at bats, he still has an average of .295. His ADP was 32.7 yet he is the 10th overall player on ESPN's Player Rater. Brantley, who was still available in most drafts by the 22nd round!! is the fourth overall batter on the Player Rater and is hitting a smoking .322 with double-digit homers and steals. These three players make up my (very debatable) fantasy all star outfield.

Designated Hitter - Charlie Blackmon, COL
ESPN lists Blackmon's ADP as 260. That is the number assigned to all players that had an ADP outside the 25 rounds of standard leagues. Essentially, Blackmon was pretty much drafted no where. Those who were able to pick him up in free agency, though, are enjoying the ride. Blackmon is slashing .306/53/14/51/17 for Colorado (that's BA / R / HR / RBI / SB). He has been an unbelievable, all around, offensive threat. He has put up better numbers than players such as Yasiel Puig and Adrian Beltre. Blackmon has been a fantasy stud.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0404/mlb_a_blackm_cr_1296x729.jpg
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0404/mlb_a_blackm_cr_1296x729.jpg

Starting Pitcher - Johnny Cueto, CIN
Cueto, the third overall pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater, may have been the National League's starting pitcher on Tuesday had he not started Sunday's game for the Reds. Not bad for a pitcher who had an ADP of 182.4. He has miniscule ratios with a 2.13 ERA and 0.89 WHIP to go along with 141 punch outs. Kershaw, Hernandez, Darvish, and Wainwright have all been fantastic. Cueto is right up there with them. Consider each of those players' ADPs and it is no wonder why Cueto is the fantasy all star team's starter.

Closer - Francisco Rodriguez, MIL
For most of the Spring, most believed that Jim Henderson was going to be Milwaukee's closer. For that reason, "K-Rod" went un-drafted in most standard leagues. That didn't stop K-Rod from not only taking the 9th inning for the Brew Crew but from being ranked the #1 closer on ESPN's Player Rater heading into the ASB. Yes, most would rather have an Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel type closer going forward. But given where they were drafted, K-Rod was quite easily the best value out of all closers. He has a K/9 over ten, is tied for second in all of baseball in saves, and has a WHIP under 1.00. He is also in the top ten out of current closers in strikeouts. For those lucky enough to pick up Rodriguez back in April, they are reaping the benefits.

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/francisco-rodriguez-41713.jpg
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/francisco-rodriguez-41713.jpg



Saturday, July 12, 2014

Revisiting the February 23rd Mock Draft

On February 23, I posted my first mock draft of the season. It was titled, "Mock Draft 1.0" because I thought I would do more than one. Unfortunately, I was unable to complete another mock. With the one mock on record, let's analyze and see how I did as the MLB enters it's All Star break.

This was the team drafted:

C - E. Gattis
1B - E. Encarnacion
2B - M. Carpenter
3B - M. Cabrera
SS - J. Reyes
2B/SS - J. Gyorko
1B/3B - M. Machado
OF - G. Stanton
OF - J. Bautista
OF - J. Hamilton
OF - A. Gordon
OF - M. Cuddyer
UTIL - X. Bogaerts

Starting Pitchers: M. Cain, G. Gonzalez, M. Wacha, J. Lester, H. Kuroda, P. Corbin, Y. Gallardo, C. Tillman
Relief Pitchers: A. Reed, C. Janssen, F. Rodney

Bench: C. Hart
The first thing that comes to mind is players I would have dropped by now.  Without a doubt, Gyorko, Corbin, Tillman, and Hart would be released. Given that this was a 10 team draft, I am perfectly fine with losing my projected 6th and 8th starters (Corbin and Tillman) because they would have been easy to replace. Players like Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards, and Alfredo Simon have been unbelievable this year and none of them were drafted by another team in the mock. Therefore, it is safe to assume I would have added at least one of them, if not more. I cannot give myself credit for owning them, since clearly I did not draft them in this mock. Regardless, replacing starting pitchers in 10 team leagues is not as hard as some would think. Gyorko and Hart have both struggled and spent time on the disabled list (DL). Dropping the two of them would be an easy decision.

Given that Gattis, Encarnacion, and Wacha are all on the DL, I highly doubt Cuddyer would have been held on to. 

Keeping these injured players in mind, there are still plenty of positives with this roster. This team has seven All Stars. Gattis, Encarnacion, Stanton, Cabrera and Bautista combine for 94 home runs so far this season, which is an average of about 19 per player. 

As for speed, this team would be doing about as I expected. Not much speed. Overall, though, this offense would have been pretty darn good. Plenty of pop, pretty good average, and lots of runs.
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2013/10/23/1226745/090499-matt-carpenter.jpg
 http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2013/10/23/1226745/090499-matt-carpenter.jpg
The pitching has serious issues. While there are some positives, such as Jon Lester's brilliance so far this season (ranked as the 10th SP on ESPN's Player Rater), there are far more negatives. Gonzalez, Cain, and Gallardo have been inconsistent and, as previously mentioned, Michael Wacha is on the DL. Kuroda's ERA is north of 4.00 and the other two starters would have been dropped. Clearly, this team would struggle with starting pitching. Of course there are exceptions, and this isn't to sugarcoat the lackluster pitching, but in a 10 team league (head-to-head), you can live with sub-par pitching so long as your hitting is great. I do believe this team has stellar offense.

Finally, the closers have all found success. While Reed has certainly been unspectacular, he has accumulated 21 saves on a team that only has 40 wins. Casey Janssen has been arguably untouchable since returning from the disabled list for Toronto, with an ERA of 1.29 and WHIP under 1.00. Rodney is a lot closer to Janssen than Reed, with 27 saves and an ERA under 2.00. The three closers have combined for 61 saves, and would have been perfectly suitable for this team. 

Given the pitching troubles, all the DL stints, and the prolonged slumps of players such as Xander Bogaerts and Jose Reyes throughout the first half, I don't think this team would be doing so well to this point. However, I would expect a turn around in the second-half given the team's excellent power-offense and the recent success from starters Gio Gonzalez and Matt Cain.

Monday, July 7, 2014

Did Coldplay Sing About the Future Red Sox?


Back in 2005 when Coldplay came out with "Fix You," who knew the opening lines of the song were telling the future of the 2014 Red Sox?

When you try your best but you don't succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can't sleep
Stuck in reverse
When the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can't replace
When you love someone but it goes to waste
Could it be worse?


The first half is pretty self-explanatory, except maybe the second line. Allow me to explain it. What the Red Sox wanted ("When you get what you want but not what you need") is most surely about Stephen Drew. The Red Sox shortstop never plays against lefties (which is probably for the better), and has 11 hits in 78 at bats...

... no I'm serious. Eleven hits in seventy-eight at bats. 

Not only did the signing of Drew give the team another player who can't hit his way out of a paper bag and not only did it move the future of the franchise to a different position, but it cost them $10 million. Oh and that "future of the franchise," Xander Bogaerts, hit .296 this season while playing shortstop. As a third baseman, where Drew moved him to, he's hitting .139. No, that is not a typo. 

So they got what they wanted. They wanted the legendary Stephen Drew. What did they need, though? An outfield. Of course, that is not news to anyone. Wow Pete, the Red Sox need an outfield? Good call. Real original argument. Take what everyone is saying about the Red Sox and just tie it to some Coldplay lyrics. 

Shut it. While yes, it is obvious the Red Sox need a better outfield, it is still fair to question what Ben Cherington was thinking. The platoon in left worked almost too perfectly last season as did the health of Shane Victorino. However, when your team's salary for the 2014 season is $154,512,396... can't you afford an everyday, solid left fielder? How has the platoon worked this season? 

Victorino holds a spot in the heart of every Red Sox fan (as does Nava and Gomes) after last post-season's heroics. He's always been a solid player, a smile in the dugout, and a hard-nosed fielder. Even with how well he performed last season, didn't the Red Sox need some kind of insurance plan? The Sox right fielder missed time last season and is 33-years old with lots of wear and tear on his small frame. OK, so maybe there was no need to go out and trade away the farm system for Michael Cuddyer or Domonic Brown but wouldn't some insurance be nice? The only "back up" (who actually landed the starting gig) the Sox signed for the outfield was Grady Sizemore and everyone knows about the risks that he came with. So the outfield was really three platoon players (if you include Carp), a rookie, a guy who hadn't played in years, and a fragile right fielder on the decline. Well thank the baseball gods that Betts and Holt moved to the outfield.

What hurts the most about it for Sox fans is that Nelson Cruz, who is going to be starting in the All Star Game and leads the MLB with 27 homers and 71 RBI, signed for one year at $8 million. Yeah, the guy that just annihilated the Sox over the weekend. No one knew the PED using 34-year old with bad hamstrings was going to tear it up this insanely but how were the Sox not in on him with such a slim outfield?  Even Curtis Granderson, who recently hit .300 in June with 5 home runs, signed with the New York Mets for four years, $60 million. While that is a lot of money to give a 33-year old, wouldn't he have been worth a shot for a team coming off a World Series title with no highly rated outfield prospects? (Just so you know, Mookie Betts was a second baseman until this season). 

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/players/525x330/443558.jpg
http://mlb.mlb.com/images/players/525x330/443558.jpg
When you lose something you can't replace. You guessed it, this line is about Jacoby Ellsbury. Should the Red Sox have signed Ellsbury for the seven-year, $153 million contract it cost the Yankees? Maybe not. Is he replaceable, though? Definitely not. You can't just replace what Ellsbury brought to the table with a single player. That would be unfair to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Grady Sizemore. Neither Cruz nor Granderson would have replaced Ellsbury, either. He simply did too much for the team. The problem is, however, the Red Sox did not do enough in trying to make up for the loss.

Who did the Red Sox love but let go to waste? Certainly not Ellsbury, as he helped bring two titles to Boston. I would hardly call that a waste. This line could be interpreted in many different ways. I take it as a possible prediction on Sox closer Koji Uehara. All of Boston loves Koji. High Five City has lit up opposing teams and recorded 39 saves since given the closers role last season. The problem is that Koji is a free agent at the end of the season. At 39 years old (he will be 40 after the first week of next season), he may choose to retire. If in fact the Red Sox are out of contention this season, trading Koji is a must. There are plenty of playoff contenders (Tigers, Giants, Angels, etc.) who have had serious bullpen issues this year. Koji is a bonafide, shutdown closer who some teams may pay a king's ransom for. The Red Sox need to take advantage of this if they do not catch fire these next few weeks before the trade deadline. Otherwise, he could end up as someone they loved but let go to waste. Thanks, Coldplay. 

http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/.a/6a00e54f7fc4c58833019affe18853970c-pi
http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/.a/6a00e54f7fc4c58833019affe18853970c-pi
 And finally there's the question we've been asking just about all season: "Could it be worse?" In short, yes, it could be way worse. It's tough to think it could be worse after getting swept at home by the lowly Cubs but even through all the losses and frustrations this season, the Red Sox have a loaded farm system, a lot of money to spend, and hey - they might still be in this thing. I'm of course keeping the faith. But even I'll admit, it's been tough to.