Don't Give Up on Mookie Betts

This title should be a little odd to diehard baseball fans. Who is giving up on Mookie Betts? Sure, his batting average isn't what we hoped but he has played less than half an MLB season. You cannot honestly judge a player based off such a small sample size.

Now I would understand why Red Sox fans would be sensitive when hearing "but it's a small sample size!" Similar lines were used on the team's other rookie centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., going into this season. Last year 'JBJ' batted for a horrendous .189 average. Given that the .189 came from only 95 at bats and that JBJ had such a successful Spring Training, fans were eager to give him a second chance in 2014. What has Bradley Jr. done with this second chance? Hit .216 in 348 at bats. Awful.

Mookie Betts isn't Jackie Bradley Jr., though, and Red Sox fans need to understand that. JBJ has played 89 career games in AAA and hit .268. Though only playing 45 games this year, even less before his promotion to Boston (he has since been sent back down and recalled again), Betts hit .335 in AAA. He destroyed opposing pitching in Pawtucket. Now this isn't to say Bradley Jr. wasn't successful in the minors at the plate. He put up solid overall numbers. Mookie Betts' numbers were still significantly better.

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Here are the 162 game averages for five highly regarded 2014 rookies. The categories listed are: runs/ home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases/batting average/on-base percentage(OBP)/slugging percentage (SLG%).

Player A: 68 / 4 / 43 / 11 /.210 / .286 / .300

Player B: 80 / 27 / 91 / 2 / .186 / .296 / .372

Player C: 74 / 15 / 22 / 29 / .254 / .346 / .394

Player D: 104 / 15 / 76 / 30 / .241 / .308 / .349

Player E: 61 / 12 / 45 / 28 / .234 / .275 / .354

Can you guess which one Betts is?

Betts is the one with the highest OBP and SLG%, Player C. Who are the others? Player A is Bradley Jr. Yes, the player with the worst numbers. Player B is the power hitting first baseman for the Houston Astros, Jon Singleton. D is the Pirates coveted prospect Gregory Polanco, who was recently demoted back to Triple A. Finally, Player E is Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong.

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Of course, 162 game averages are flawed statistics. For example, Betts' projected RBI total over 162 games is 22. A player with 15 home runs and a .394 SLG% would certainly finish with more than 22 RBI. Still, these stats are pretty straightforward and Betts' projections are not bad, especially when compared to other top prospects around the game.

None of those stat-lines really jump off the page at anyone. The averages are all poor and for top prospects none of the stat-lines say "future superstar." Still, by providing such examples it should be noted that not all prospects are Mike Trout or Ryan Braun. They don't make the leap from the minors to the majors as if nothing changed. With recent rookies like Jose Fernandez and Trout taking the league by storm, a common misconception is that rookies should immediately make a great impact if they are going to be any good in the future. It is an unfair expectation and one that puts a lot of pressure on players in their low-20s adjusting to the biggest stage of their careers.

Red Sox fans have seen their team go from last, to first, to last in three years. It is not an easy roller coaster to stomach, given the team's current state. None of the rookie starting pitchers have been exceptional and all of the hitters have been disappointing (except for Brock Holt!). Still, it is much too early to give up on Betts. He has not had a fair-enough shake to be judged. The team around him has been bad and he hasn't even logged 100 Major League at bats yet. While it is easy to get caught up in the "Giancarlo Stanton to Boston" nonsense as well as how disappointing the prospects have been, be happy with what your team has right now. His role on the team is currently up-in-the-air, with three former All Star outfielders and a 27 year old Cuban phenom in front of him. So, there is the real possibility he is moved. Regardless of whether he is traded or not, Betts will be a solid player somewhere. Book it.

Who is Rusney Castillo and Why Do the Red Sox Want Him?

"ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that the bidding for Castillo could cost $50-60MM over five years. Stark lists five of the six usual suspects as finalists, noting that the Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Phillies and Yankees remain in the mix for Castillo."

Who? What!? Red Sox!?!?

Rusney Castillo recently defected from Cuba to play Major League Baseball in the United States. Castillo is a 27 year old outfielder who some would regard as a five-tool player. He is currently weighing his options from several big market clubs and sources believe his decision is coming soon.

The Red Sox have David Ortiz at designated hitter, Mike Napoli at first base, and an outfield that has three former (one current) All Stars as well as two highly-rated outfield prospects (Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts). With Ortiz and Napoli at DH and 1B, Allen Craig must play the outfield. Who gets benched then? Given the struggles of almost all Red Sox rookies at the plate, it would be logical to assume Bradley Jr. and Betts would start the season in the minor leagues or on the bench. Of course, there is also the possibility that one of them could get traded this off-season, especially if the Red Sox sign Castillo. That would leave the team with Craig in left, Shane Victorino in center, and Yoenis Cespedes in right. Where does that leave room for Castillo, even with the rookies out of the way? That I cannot answer. Given the ample time missed by Victorino and Craig this season due to injuries, however, Castillo may have an opening sooner rather than later.

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Castillo can help the Red Sox with something they haven't received from their outfield this season: offense. In over 1,100 at bats, Castillo only hit 42 home runs in Cuban ball. However, his career batting average of .315 and on-base percentage of .380 would be more than welcomed by the Sox. With his above-average speed (68 steals in 96 attempts), Castillo could potentially provide the club with a lead-off punch that they have been missing since Jacoby Ellsbury's departure in free agency.

Another reason why the Red Sox should sign Castillo? Yoenis Cespedes. Some Red Sox fans (many who just simply had a man-crush on Jon Lester) were upset about the team's acquisition of Cespedes because he is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, giving the team only about a year-and-a-half of control. Cespedes, also a native Cuban and a former teammate of Castillo, likened Castillo to Los Angeles Dodgers stud (and yes, a fellow Cuban) Yasiel Puig: “If he’s not a five-tool player, he’s at least a four-tool player. He’s very comparable to [Yasiel] Puig. Obviously a different height and size, but very similar qualities.” A powerful right-handed hitter like Cespedes would certainly love to play at Fenway Park beyond 2015. Adding a player who is not only also a native Cuban but could potentially be an excellent MLB player just adds more incentive for Cespedes to remain with the Sox. 

Here are some highlights of Castillo provided by BaseballAmerica: 

Click Here. Blogger wouldn't let me embed it, sorry!

Obviously these highlights are a tiny sample of selected clips. With that said, I was able to find some aspects of his play that I find particularly appeasing. As noted, he is not exactly a power hitter. Still, it was nice to see him take a high pitch to the opposite field at 2:28 in the video. For him to take a pitch to the opposite field almost 400 feet for the home run is very impressive. In almost 450 major league at bats now, Jackie Bradley Jr. has four home runs. None of them were to the opposite field. 

The other part of Castillo's game that I thought would fit in nicely with any MLB club is his bunting. Players that are fast are fairly common. Players that successfully use that speed to their advantage are less-common. Players that are fast and can bunt for base-hits are just flat-out rare. It is something that I wished Jacoby Ellsbury would have done more (I don't mean to bring his name up twice in this article - in no way, shape, or form do I expect Castillo to be Ellsbury). The bunt that Castillo lays down at 1:15 is gorgeous. All season, especially with Victorino on the DL, fans have harped on the Red Sox for a true lead-off hitter. While Brock Holt has done admirably, Castillo could potentially be incredible atop a lineup that includes Pedroia, Ortiz, and Cespedes. 

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To those that think, "Because of Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox will stay away from international players. That's why they didn't sign Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka!" Please understand that not only was "Dice-K" signed under a different general manager than Ben Cherington, but the Red Sox didn't sign Abreu (despite being rumored to be interested) because Abreu signed with the Chicago White Sox in late October. What were the Red Sox doing in late October? Oh, right, winning the World Series. Signing a power-hitting first baseman entering his prime in the middle of the World Series may have sent some bad vibes to the locker room, especially to Mike Napoli who was a soon-to-be free agent. As for Tanaka? The Red Sox entered the 2014 season with one of the deepest pitching staffs on paper. At the time, there was no reason to throw a lot of money Tanaka's way. 

I am confident that wherever Rusney Castillo ends up, he will be a solid player. As Red Sox fans have noticed first-hand this year, you can never have enough solid outfielders. Even if it means saying good-bye to one of the team's top prospects to make room, adding Castillo to the mix in Boston would be a great addition.

Fun Facts about Clayton Kershaw's 2014 Season

Clayton Kershaw, ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers, is having a magical season... again. He is well on his way to his third National League Cy Young Award in four seasons. The southpaw is nails and here are some interesting facts through his first 20 starts of 2014 that may (most likely not) surprise you:

1. Jon Lester and Sonny Gray, co-aces of the Oakland Athletics, are having fantastic seasons. Their combined WAR is 5.49. Kershaw's is 5.92! (What is WAR? Google.)

2. In 141.1 innings pitched (IP), Kershaw has 174 strikeouts (Ks). In 169 IP, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has 138 Ks.

3. There have been 60 complete games (CG) in the MLB so far this season. Kershaw leads the MLB with six CGs.

4. Six complete games is as many as Yu Darvish, Chris Sale, and David Price have combined.

5. Kershaw has thrown 18 quality starts (QS = at least 6 IP and only 3 ER surrendered or less) in 20 tries. That .9 QS% is the highest mark in the majors out of all pitchers with at least three starts.

6. Kershaw has thrown at least 7 IP in 15 out of 20 starts this season.

7. His last non-quality start was June 8.

8. The last time he threw less than 7 IP in a start was June 8.

9. Since you are obviously wondering, he won his start on June 8 against the Rockies, who at the time had the best offense in baseball, throwing 5 scoreless innings and striking out 9.

10. His ERA that month was 0.82. No, really, 0.82.

11. After a CG, 11 K performance, Kershaw suffered his third loss of the season on August 16.

12. ... his last loss was May 28th.

13. Out of pitchers with at least 20 starts in 2014, Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg is ranked 18th with a 1.21 WHIP (Walks+Hits per IP). Kershaw is ranked first with a 0.84 WHIP. A 0.37 (that's a lot for this statistic!) difference.

14. Kershaw has one thing in common with mortals: he loves Fridays. Kershaw's ERA in three Friday starts is 0.43.

15. ...yes he won all three of those starts.

16. Through 141.1 IP so far this season, Kershaw has only been on the losing side of the scoreboard for 24.0 of those innings.

17. His ERA while trailing is 2.63.

18. His ERA while the score is tied is 2.59.

19. His ERA when the team is ahead, which has been for 79.2 IP, is 1.24. When he has the lead, the game is basically over.

20. Through those 79.2 IP, Kershaw has 94 strikeouts.

21. Kershaw has never loaded the bases this season... HE HAS NEVER LOADED THE BASES THIS SEASON!

22. Kershaw's ERA in the 5th inning of games this season is 0.00.

23. His ERA in the 8th inning of games this season is also 0.00. (9 IP)

24. Kershaw has not intentionally walked anyone this season. Fearless.

25. He is on pace to lead all qualifying National League starters in ERA for the 4th straight season.

26. ...he is also on pace to lead all qualifying National League starters in WHIP for the 4th straight season.

27. Wainwright's home ERA is 3.64. Strasburg's road ERA is 4.77. Giants ace Madison Bumgarner's home ERA is 5.17. Braves ace Julio Teheran's road ERA is 4.27. Kershaw's ERA is under 2.00 both at home and on the road. He doesn't care where he's pitching.

28. Kershaw's ERA through his first 75 pitches into a game is 1.91.

29. His ERA through pitches 76 on is even better - 1.73. He gets better as the game goes on, when his team needs him the most. He is superhuman.

30. When Kershaw has two outs in an inning, his ERA is 1.58. The inning is essentially over, similar to this list.

If anyone ever tries to tell you that Clayton Kershaw is not the best pitcher in baseball, please understand that they are lying to you. Yes, I am aware of his lackluster postseason numbers. Understand, though, that 15.1 of his 38.1 postseason IP came in 2008 and 2009, when he was 20 and 21 years old. If you remove those innings from his postseason numbers, his postseason ERA is a much more respectable 3.13. That number would be under 1.00 if it weren't for two bad innings against the Cardinals last October.

The man is unreal.

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Three Reasons Why Trading Jon Lester Was a Smart Decision

Jon Lester never really came close to winning a Cy Young in Boston and was only an All Star three times since his rookie year in 2006. He never had a 20-win season nor did he ever finish a season with an ERA under 3.25. Admittedly part of the embarrassing "chicken and beer" fiasco, Lester was a large reason for the 2011 team's collapse when, in September, he went 1-3 with an ERA of 5.40. The next season in 2012, Lester was awful, finishing with an ERA of 4.82.

Even in 2013, a year in which Lester was a huge reason as to why the Red Sox won the World Series, he had an ERA over 4.50 in the first half. That means from September 2011 to July 2013 Jon Lester was an inconsistent (at best) below-average starter. During this time period, from September 2011 to the All Star Break in 2013, Lester's ERA was 4.77 through 71 starts in that time frame.

That is not a small sample size. That is almost two full years! Consider that this was during his ages 27-28-29 seasons and it makes you wonder, at least a little bit, how good he actually is. Of course, if you want to look at what he's done lately, he's been outstanding. To say he's been "outstanding" might actually be an understatement. Lester was absolute nails in the second-half of 2013 and in the playoffs right through winning the World Series. So far this season he has put up a career best 2.44 ERA and is coming off a complete game shutout against Minnesota in his last outing. There is no denying that Lester, right now, is a great pitcher.

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Neither is there any denying that he served Boston well. Despite the curious aforementioned numbers from late 2011 to the All Star Break of 2013, Lester was one of the Red Sox's best players. He's always been up front with the media, holds himself accountable, and usually pitches great when the Red Sox need him most. His two World Series rings and 2.11 ERA in the playoffs speak for themselves. Why is it then, that trading him was such a great idea? Other than the obvious fact that the Red Sox are going nowhere in 2014 and that Lester is a free agent at the end of it?

1 - Maybe, just maybe, there is that slim chance, that he might, possibly, come back.
Lester has been adamant since the talk of his impending free agency began that he wanted to remain with the Red Sox. Sure, he rejected the team's offer of 4 years at $70 million even after saying he would take a hometown discount. Can you blame him, though? Homer Bailey, a far inferior pitcher to Lester with a career ERA over 4.00, recently signed a six year $105 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds may be stupid, but Jon Lester isn't. If Bailey can sign a contract like that, surely Lester can sign a greater one even with a discount included. While Red Sox President Larry Lucchino suggested it was an "opening offer," hinting that the team would go higher than the 4 years/$70 million, it remains to be seen just how high the Red Sox will bid for their former ace in this off-season's free agency. Of course, there is also this: click.

2 - The Red Sox neeeeeeeed offensive production, especially from the outfield.
So far this season, the Red Sox rank last in home runs from left fielders and tied for third-to-last in home runs from center fielders and right fielders. Uh, that's terrible. The additions of Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig (from the John Lackey trade), two former All Stars, do leave question marks in the Sox's outfield. Most likely, one of Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. will be dealt this off-season. No matter what the Red Sox outfield looks like at the beginning of next season, however, it will be an upgrade from this year's. Adding an All Star, right-handed power bat to the outfield was just what the doctor ordered for the Sox. All Red Sox fans will miss Jonny Gomes. Gomes was a huge part of the 2013 World Series Championship. Like Lester, though, Gomes will be a free agent at the end of this season and all he was really doing was blocking the rookies from playing time.

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3 - Henry Owens
Casual Red Sox fans have probably all heard about the team's pitching prospects but don't know much about them. Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Brandon Workman have now spent ample time with the big league club but who are Henry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, and Matt Barnes? For Pawtucket this year, Ranaudo is 13-4 with a 2.58 ERA. He beat the Yankees in his MLB debut. Matt Barnes is a 6'4 right handed starter who, despite struggling a bit this season, projects to be a solid major league arm. He was ranked as the Red Sox's ninth-best prospect this season by Baseball America. The cream of the crop, however, is Henry Owens. Owens is currently the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's farm system. He has one of the most elite change-ups in all of the minor leagues and projects as a top of the rotation starter. In his Triple A debut last Monday, Owens tossed 6.2 innings. He finished with nine strikeouts, zero runs allowed, and only two hits and three walks surrendered.

It would not be fair to expect one of these six pitchers or any of the other pitchers on the current roster to replace what Jon Lester gave the team. However, the Red Sox have assembled a group of young arms that all have the potential to step in and make an impact. Lester could return, the team could trade for Cole Hamels, or they could sign Max Scherzer or James Shields in free agency. Who knows what they will do? The one thing for sure, however, is that this young collection of pitchers puts the future of the team's rotation in a positive light.

Jon Lester was great for the Red Sox. Unless he re-signs with the team, it is time to move on from him. There are too many reasons why Red Sox fans should be ecstatic for the off-season and the start of the 2015 season. It hurts that Lester is gone, but there is still a team to cheer for.