Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Don't Give Up on Mookie Betts

This title should be a little odd to diehard baseball fans. Who is giving up on Mookie Betts? Sure, his batting average isn't what we hoped but he has played less than half an MLB season. You cannot honestly judge a player based off such a small sample size.

Now I would understand why Red Sox fans would be sensitive when hearing "but it's a small sample size!" Similar lines were used on the team's other rookie centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., going into this season. Last year 'JBJ' batted for a horrendous .189 average. Given that the .189 came from only 95 at bats and that JBJ had such a successful Spring Training, fans were eager to give him a second chance in 2014. What has Bradley Jr. done with this second chance? Hit .216 in 348 at bats. Awful.

Mookie Betts isn't Jackie Bradley Jr., though, and Red Sox fans need to understand that. JBJ has played 89 career games in AAA and hit .268. Though only playing 45 games this year, even less before his promotion to Boston (he has since been sent back down and recalled again), Betts hit .335 in AAA. He destroyed opposing pitching in Pawtucket. Now this isn't to say Bradley Jr. wasn't successful in the minors at the plate. He put up solid overall numbers. Mookie Betts' numbers were still significantly better.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0702/bos_g_betts_cr_576x324.jpg
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0702/bos_g_betts_cr_576x324.jpg
Here are the 162 game averages for five highly regarded 2014 rookies. The categories listed are: runs/ home runs/runs batted in/stolen bases/batting average/on-base percentage(OBP)/slugging percentage (SLG%).

Player A: 68 / 4 / 43 / 11 /.210 / .286 / .300

Player B: 80 / 27 / 91 / 2 / .186 / .296 / .372

Player C: 74 / 15 / 22 / 29 / .254 / .346 / .394

Player D: 104 / 15 / 76 / 30 / .241 / .308 / .349

Player E: 61 / 12 / 45 / 28 / .234 / .275 / .354

Can you guess which one Betts is?

Betts is the one with the highest OBP and SLG%, Player C. Who are the others? Player A is Bradley Jr. Yes, the player with the worst numbers. Player B is the power hitting first baseman for the Houston Astros, Jon Singleton. D is the Pirates coveted prospect Gregory Polanco, who was recently demoted back to Triple A. Finally, Player E is Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong.

http://www.foxsports.com/content/dam/fsdigital/fscom/mlb/images/2014/06/10/061014-MLB-Pittsburgh-Pirates-Gregory-Polanco-JT-PI.jpg
http://www.foxsports.com/content/dam/fsdigital/fscom/mlb/images/2014/06/10/061014-MLB-Pittsburgh-Pirates-Gregory-Polanco-JT-PI.jpg
Of course, 162 game averages are flawed statistics. For example, Betts' projected RBI total over 162 games is 22. A player with 15 home runs and a .394 SLG% would certainly finish with more than 22 RBI. Still, these stats are pretty straightforward and Betts' projections are not bad, especially when compared to other top prospects around the game.

None of those stat-lines really jump off the page at anyone. The averages are all poor and for top prospects none of the stat-lines say "future superstar." Still, by providing such examples it should be noted that not all prospects are Mike Trout or Ryan Braun. They don't make the leap from the minors to the majors as if nothing changed. With recent rookies like Jose Fernandez and Trout taking the league by storm, a common misconception is that rookies should immediately make a great impact if they are going to be any good in the future. It is an unfair expectation and one that puts a lot of pressure on players in their low-20s adjusting to the biggest stage of their careers.

Red Sox fans have seen their team go from last, to first, to last in three years. It is not an easy roller coaster to stomach, given the team's current state. None of the rookie starting pitchers have been exceptional and all of the hitters have been disappointing (except for Brock Holt!). Still, it is much too early to give up on Betts. He has not had a fair-enough shake to be judged. The team around him has been bad and he hasn't even logged 100 Major League at bats yet. While it is easy to get caught up in the "Giancarlo Stanton to Boston" nonsense as well as how disappointing the prospects have been, be happy with what your team has right now. His role on the team is currently up-in-the-air, with three former All Star outfielders and a 27 year old Cuban phenom in front of him. So, there is the real possibility he is moved. Regardless of whether he is traded or not, Betts will be a solid player somewhere. Book it.

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