Three Reasons Why Trading Jon Lester Was a Smart Decision

Jon Lester never really came close to winning a Cy Young in Boston and was only an All Star three times since his rookie year in 2006. He never had a 20-win season nor did he ever finish a season with an ERA under 3.25. Admittedly part of the embarrassing "chicken and beer" fiasco, Lester was a large reason for the 2011 team's collapse when, in September, he went 1-3 with an ERA of 5.40. The next season in 2012, Lester was awful, finishing with an ERA of 4.82.

Even in 2013, a year in which Lester was a huge reason as to why the Red Sox won the World Series, he had an ERA over 4.50 in the first half. That means from September 2011 to July 2013 Jon Lester was an inconsistent (at best) below-average starter. During this time period, from September 2011 to the All Star Break in 2013, Lester's ERA was 4.77 through 71 starts in that time frame.

That is not a small sample size. That is almost two full years! Consider that this was during his ages 27-28-29 seasons and it makes you wonder, at least a little bit, how good he actually is. Of course, if you want to look at what he's done lately, he's been outstanding. To say he's been "outstanding" might actually be an understatement. Lester was absolute nails in the second-half of 2013 and in the playoffs right through winning the World Series. So far this season he has put up a career best 2.44 ERA and is coming off a complete game shutout against Minnesota in his last outing. There is no denying that Lester, right now, is a great pitcher.

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Neither is there any denying that he served Boston well. Despite the curious aforementioned numbers from late 2011 to the All Star Break of 2013, Lester was one of the Red Sox's best players. He's always been up front with the media, holds himself accountable, and usually pitches great when the Red Sox need him most. His two World Series rings and 2.11 ERA in the playoffs speak for themselves. Why is it then, that trading him was such a great idea? Other than the obvious fact that the Red Sox are going nowhere in 2014 and that Lester is a free agent at the end of it?

1 - Maybe, just maybe, there is that slim chance, that he might, possibly, come back.
Lester has been adamant since the talk of his impending free agency began that he wanted to remain with the Red Sox. Sure, he rejected the team's offer of 4 years at $70 million even after saying he would take a hometown discount. Can you blame him, though? Homer Bailey, a far inferior pitcher to Lester with a career ERA over 4.00, recently signed a six year $105 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds may be stupid, but Jon Lester isn't. If Bailey can sign a contract like that, surely Lester can sign a greater one even with a discount included. While Red Sox President Larry Lucchino suggested it was an "opening offer," hinting that the team would go higher than the 4 years/$70 million, it remains to be seen just how high the Red Sox will bid for their former ace in this off-season's free agency. Of course, there is also this: click.

2 - The Red Sox neeeeeeeed offensive production, especially from the outfield.
So far this season, the Red Sox rank last in home runs from left fielders and tied for third-to-last in home runs from center fielders and right fielders. Uh, that's terrible. The additions of Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig (from the John Lackey trade), two former All Stars, do leave question marks in the Sox's outfield. Most likely, one of Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. will be dealt this off-season. No matter what the Red Sox outfield looks like at the beginning of next season, however, it will be an upgrade from this year's. Adding an All Star, right-handed power bat to the outfield was just what the doctor ordered for the Sox. All Red Sox fans will miss Jonny Gomes. Gomes was a huge part of the 2013 World Series Championship. Like Lester, though, Gomes will be a free agent at the end of this season and all he was really doing was blocking the rookies from playing time.

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3 - Henry Owens
Casual Red Sox fans have probably all heard about the team's pitching prospects but don't know much about them. Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Brandon Workman have now spent ample time with the big league club but who are Henry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, and Matt Barnes? For Pawtucket this year, Ranaudo is 13-4 with a 2.58 ERA. He beat the Yankees in his MLB debut. Matt Barnes is a 6'4 right handed starter who, despite struggling a bit this season, projects to be a solid major league arm. He was ranked as the Red Sox's ninth-best prospect this season by Baseball America. The cream of the crop, however, is Henry Owens. Owens is currently the best pitching prospect in the Red Sox's farm system. He has one of the most elite change-ups in all of the minor leagues and projects as a top of the rotation starter. In his Triple A debut last Monday, Owens tossed 6.2 innings. He finished with nine strikeouts, zero runs allowed, and only two hits and three walks surrendered.

It would not be fair to expect one of these six pitchers or any of the other pitchers on the current roster to replace what Jon Lester gave the team. However, the Red Sox have assembled a group of young arms that all have the potential to step in and make an impact. Lester could return, the team could trade for Cole Hamels, or they could sign Max Scherzer or James Shields in free agency. Who knows what they will do? The one thing for sure, however, is that this young collection of pitchers puts the future of the team's rotation in a positive light.

Jon Lester was great for the Red Sox. Unless he re-signs with the team, it is time to move on from him. There are too many reasons why Red Sox fans should be ecstatic for the off-season and the start of the 2015 season. It hurts that Lester is gone, but there is still a team to cheer for.