Stream of the Week: Robbie Erlin

Every Monday one starter owned in less than 25% of ESPN standard leagues (if you don't know what that means, read this article) will be selected for you to start if you are in need of a spot start that week. I don't promise to nail it every time, but I will try to provide a reasonable enough explanation as to why you should do so.

This week's selection is none other than San Diego Padres' southpaw Robbie Erlin. The 23 year old slinger has a 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, so why the heck should you start him? The easy answer is that only five teams in all of Major League Baseball have scored less runs and batted for a lower team-average than the Cubbies, Erlin's foe on Friday. Let's dig a little deeper, though.

The Cubs leading run scorer, Anthony Rizzo, who is also second on the team in home runs and RBI, had a career .194 average against lefties going into this season. Yes, he has improved dramatically on that number so far this year but keep in mind that is a tiny sample of 48 at bats whereas the .194 average from the previous three seasons stems from 320 at bats.

Erlin did struggle his last time out against the Rockies, but who doesn't struggle against them this season? His three starts before that outing were all quality starts in which he struck out no less than five batters each time out. Erlin will also be at home against the Cubs Friday. His ERA at home? 2.92. That might have something to do with these huge dimensions:

 

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Yes, that is what you would call a "pitchers park." PETCO Park sports some of the largest dimensions in the MLB and should help Erlin keep guys like Rizzo and Olt within the park, not over it.

Why you shouldn't listen to me: I may have made Erlin seem pretty appetizing, which was no doubt my intent. I am sending him out there in my 16 team head-to-head keeper, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Either way, you should know some other details before going all in on Erlin. 

Erlin pitched two innings of relief against the Cubs last season in which he gave up three hits, a home run, and two earned runs. One of those hits included an RBI double from the aforementioned lefty, Rizzo. It should be noted, though, that all of those hits and earned runs were given up in garbage time as San Diego had already accumulated a 13-5 lead going into Erlin's inning. Still, there is history there that favors the Cubs.

In addition, two of the Cubs' best (fantasy) hitters this season, Mike Olt (9 HR... although he has a pathetic .176 overall BA) and Starlin Castro (.302, 22 RBI), are both right-handed bats and are hitting lefties pretty well this season. Olt's average against lefties is only .242, but that is over .060 higher than his overall batting average. Castro is hitting .308 against lefties. Right-handed hitters as a whole are batting .303 against Erlin, which is scary, especially considering the Cubs also have right-handed hitters Emilio Bonafacio (batting .400 against lefties), Junior Lake (only .222), and Wellington Castillo (.241). 

There is definite reason to be skeptical about starting Erlin. After all, he is only owned in 1.0% of ESPN standard leagues. Still, for those of us doctoring injuries on our rosters, streaming starters is the way to go. Erlin may never be Clayton Kershaw, but he does give owners a decent chance at a strong outing on Friday. I've got faith that Erlin can spin a passable game against the Cubbies.

Predicted Stat Line: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 Ks

That's a quality start and a heck of a K/9 ratio. Fingers crossed.

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