Granted, the return of Christian Vasquez as well as the returns of Carson Smith and Eduardo Rodriguez are (and should) be huge boosts to the team. My guess is Joe Kelly is the odd man out upon the return of Rodriguez, as Price, Porcello, and Buchholz have spots locked up and Wright has looked solid and goes deep into games, preserving the pen (very unlike Kelly). While that is all great news, there is still work to be done. Dave Dombrowski cannot afford to sit on his hands if the Red Sox are still only floating around .500 in May.
With so much depth in the minor leagues, the Red Sox should at least explore some options similar to the ones listed:
1 - The Home Run Deal
Red Sox send: Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, Blake Swihart, Joe Kelly, and Allen Craig (paying most of his salary)
Oakland A's send: Sonny Gray, Jed Lowrie
Why it makes sense for Oakland:
Billy Beane, Oakland GM, has literally said deciding to extend Sonny Gray is a lose-lose situation for Oakland. He either is great but takes up too much salary, or does not perform up to the contract and takes up too salary. Oakland isn't young and their veteran talent is not good. They're 6-7 right now, but their lack of young talent will keep them from contending. Devers, according to some like Keith Law, is the Red Sox top prospect and has great power from third base. Swihart has always had a strong bat and is also highly valued in the Red Sox system. Espinoza offers a young, potential-filled replacement for Gray (eventually, he is very young) as the top arm in the Red Sox farm system. Joe Kelly and Allen Craig could greatly benefit from a change of scenary - especially Craig who would probably become Oakland's starting 1B (they are platooning Alonso and Canha).
Why it makes sense for Boston:
Devers-Espinoza-Swihart is definitely a monster package, but in Ortiz's final year, it may be worth to splurge a little bit for some high-end MLB talent. Gray is no question an ace and starting pitching is Boston's biggest need. While the farm system would certainly look bare, Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi would still be in the system. The switch-hitting Lowrie would be an upgrade over Josh Rutledge and Marco Hernandez as a utility infielder. Boston fans probably cringe at sending off those prospects and non-Boston fans probably scoff and think that isn't enough - but given the situations of both teams, this deal would make sense. Could the Red Sox regret it at some point? Maybe, but they might win a World Series out of it.
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Red Sox send: Koji Uehara, Chris Young
Washington Nationals send: Gio Gonzalez
Why it makes sense for Washington:
Jayson Werth hasn't been able to hit his way out of a paperbag since returning to the lineup and while Michael Taylor had a great Spring Training, it hasn't yet translated to the regular season (.146 BA). Chris Young has been putrid as well, but that is largely due to him only facing RHP so far (aside from JA Happ, who he scored a double off of). The return of Ben Revere and the contract of Jayson Werth may cause Washington to balk at Chris Young in this hypothetical offer, but if they're worried Werth can't contribute then maybe CY isn't a bad option. Gio has a $12mil option at the end of this year, but Washington may elect to move him while he has some value to free up a spot for top prospect (and arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball) Lucas Giolito. Gonzalez has been great so far, but against two of the worst teams in baseball. Giolito could be an upgrade in the rotation and adding Uehara would greatly bolster a pen that is incredibly slim outside of Papelbon and Kelley (the former of which is off to a slow start himself). Uehara is a FA at the end of the season, so Washington improves their bullpen without committing to a long-term contract and frees up a spot for an elite prospect SP.
Perhaps Washington would be more interested in Josh Rutledge? Hardly an appetizing player, but a change up from Danny Espinosa might be in order, as he hasn't been able to hit in the early going either.
Why it makes sense for Boston:
Once again, the Red Sox need starting pitching. While Gio is no Sonny Gray, he isn't a slouch either. This deal is really dependent on Carson Smith getting healthy and being effective, because Koji has been incredibly important in many of the Red Sox's early wins. While it would not be my first option to trade Chris Young at such a low value, giving Rusney Castillo another shot or giving Andrew Benintendi a call could be a nice boost to the lineup. A healthy Smith with Junichi Tazawa and Craig Kimbrel should still be a shut down 7-8-9.
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Red Sox send: Pablo Sandoval, Rusney Castillo, Joe Kelly, and Allen Craig
San Diego Padres send: Matt Kemp, Andrew Cashner
Why it makes sense for the Padres:
If Pablo Sandoval's shoulder is really not a made up injury and actually a huge problem, then this is a pointless exercise (well... it was kind of already pointless anyway so lets continue). The Red Sox would certainly have to eat a TON of money in this deal, even with bringing in the massive Kemp contract, but Dombrowski has never winced in the face of spending crazy cash. The Padres liked Sandoval before he became a huge bum on the end of Boston's bench, maybe they can rekindle that intrigue if Boston eats a lot of salary? It would be a low-risk situation for SD anyway, even with giving up two players, IF the Red Sox ate a decent amount of those contracts. The other three guys, as mentioned before for Craig and Kelly, really need a change of scenery. There may be some solid baseball left in Craig and Kelly may be able to master his 98 mph fastball, but I don't think either case will occur in Boston. Kemp's departure would open an opportunity for Rusney in a much less-stressful atmosphere. It seems Boston has given up on him anyway.
Why it makes sense for Boston:
The Red Sox payroll would be horrifying - but it already is, it isn't my money, and they charge like $400 for a 12oz beer, they can afford to keep spending. A healthy Kemp would be inserted right into the heart of a loaded lineup and spare us of the Holt-Young platoon (probably meaning the end of Chris Young). The Sox could use some pop from the right side of the plate and Kemp is off to a hot start. Now granted, Cashner looks awful but would he really be any worse than Joe Kelly? He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, let's see if our manager, who is hailed as some pitching god, can figure him out.
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4 - The Never, Ever, Ever, EVER-Going-To-Happen-Fantasy-Wish-I-Was-Joking-Deal
Red Sox send: Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Blake Swihart
Pittsburgh Pirates send: Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Jordy Mercer
Why it (really doesn't) make sense for Pittsburgh:
While the Pirates have been competitive the last few years, they seemed to have hit a wall while the Cubs have gotten astronomically better. They're in a position where they need to improve but are very close to World Series contention, even more so than the Red Sox. Mookie isn't quite Andrew McCutchen (yet) but he is damn good and that outfield would still be a force to be reckoned with. Bogaerts is an insane upgrade at shortstop over Mercer. Cervelli has been very solid but Swihart should be able to lock down the job with his bat. Eduardo is ABSOLUTELY NOT Gerrit Cole, but perhaps a call up of top prospect Tyler Glasnow would help mitigate the damage of losing Cole. It comes down to would Pittsburgh rather have Cole and Jeff Locke or Rodriguez and Glasnow. MLB-level talent-wise? Yes, Pittsburgh takes a step-back. But in 2-3 years? That might make their franchise.
Why it makes sense for Boston:
For the final time, the Red Sox need starting pitching. Gerrit Cole would be an incredible addition. McCutchen would be worshipped in Boston just as Mookie is. Mercer can ride the bench while Boston calls up Yoan Moncada and transitions him to shortstop! Maybe this fantasy is out of control now.
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Why Deal 1 wouldn't happen - aside from that being a RIDICULOUS amount of talent being given up by the Red Sox, Oakland may just opt to keep Gray and ride it out. They're in second right now despite the sub-.500 record and even with Espinoza's potential, he is still a long way away from an MLB mound. Red Sox pitching prospects seem to never pan out anyway. Additionally, if Gray becomes available, the Red Sox will not be the only team bidding for his services, making a deal even less likely.
Why Deal 2 wouldn't happen - Washington is far more likely to simply keep Gio and put Roark back in the pen when the time comes to call up Giolito. They do need bullpen help, but there are cheaper options than giving up a solid SP like Gonzalez. Additionally, Chris Young or Josh Rutledge are not enough to convince a team to give up a good SP for a reliever who is 41 years old. Even if it is Koji Uehara. Finally, Washington is off to a great start. Why would they want to mix things up?
Why Deal 3 wouldn't happen - There is just too much dead money in this deal to make anything work. A 1-for-1 between two teams who have a guy that needs a change of scenery is doable. But a 4 for 2 with hundreds of millions involved? This would just never happen. Additionally, the four players the Red Sox would be trading have shown NO signs of life. They have all been miserable. It would make no sense to take on their contracts while simultaneously parting with Kemp.
Why Deal 4 wouldn't happen - it just wouldn't. And my question revolving around a combo of Cole and Locke or Rodriguez and Glasnow was misleading, because the Pirates could simply move Locke to the pen and call up Glasnow anyway.
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